Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-sep25-update-with-new-important-market-consultation-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
</ul>


A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apiam-animal-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26109:1" rel="noopener">Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynch-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36359:1" rel="noopener">Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-share-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32217:1" rel="noopener">Smart Share Global (EM US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU) and Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU).
Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), and Smart Share Global (EM US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

<ul>
<li>I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rezil-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45661:1" rel="noopener">Rezil (176A JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carenet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4001:1" rel="noopener">Carenet Inc (2150 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolon-mobility-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45648:1" rel="noopener">Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Rezil (176A JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).
Key updates/news took place on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks (BKW AU)</a>'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6513:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)</a> is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.</li>
<li>For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> would/should trade at a NAV premium.</li>
</ul>


There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) &amp; Brickworks (BKW AU)'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.
For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

Australia

Adriatic Metals PLC focuses on mineral exploration of resources. The Company explores and develops cut zinc, lead, barite, and silver mine projects. Adriatic Metals operates in the United Kingdom.

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Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

We have revised our final expectations for the September 2025 index review due to the deletion of Adriatic Metals which was one of our expected...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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