Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The spread of the global pandemic has resulted in the strongest two consecutive quarters on record for server sales and led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a> beating its second quarter forecast by nearly one billion dollars. This strength in server has spilled over to the DRAM and NAND segments with both staging robust recoveries from the protracted down cycle experienced in 2019. That situation may be coming to an abrupt end however. A key leading indicator suggests that server sales will fall sharply in the coming months. We also expect both DRAM and NAND prices to follow suit. Here's why.

The spread of the global pandemic has resulted in the strongest two consecutive quarters on record for server sales and led to Intel beating its second quarter forecast by nearly one billion dollars. This strength in server has spilled over to the DRAM and NAND segments with both staging robust recoveries from the protracted down cycle experienced in 2019. That situation may be coming to an abrupt end however. A key leading indicator suggests that server sales will fall sharply in the coming months. We also expect both DRAM and NAND prices to follow suit. Here's why.   

Server CPU, DRAM, NAND Sales Heading For A Significant Decline As Inventory Digestion Commences.

Equity Bottom-Up

The much-anticipated acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">Arm</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> was formally <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process.

The much-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm from Softbank was formally announced on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on Intel's data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process. 

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

So apparently after Sony decided to go with “RGB wireless router stuck on blue” as its design theme,<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/950/original/image_49464720921599621844778.jpg?1599621844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157950"></figure>Microsoft decided to one-up them with a full-retro hybrid radio-iStove.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 50%;">Xbox Series S     </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 50%;">1940s Tube Radio / Portable iStove</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/951/original/image_75811622431599621844778.jpg?1599621845" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157951"></figure></td>
<td style="width: 50%;"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/949/original/image_68988860241599621844778.jpg?1599621844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157949"></figure></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>The price of the system was initially leaked and then confirmed as $300 which is aggressive pricing and could help Microsoft… but we view their strategy as flawed and, in some senses, unlucky due to what Sony and Nintendo are doing. We explain why below.

So apparently after Sony decided to go with “RGB wireless router stuck on blue” as its design theme,Microsoft decided to one-up them with a full-retro hybrid radio-iStove.

Xbox Series S     
1940s Tube Radio / Portable iStove





The price of the system was initially leaked and then confirmed as $300 which is aggressive pricing and could help Microsoft… but we view their strategy as flawed and, in some senses, unlucky due to what Sony and Nintendo are doing. We explain why below.

The Xbox Series S – Minimalism Done Wrong

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Apple (APPL) stores are still crowded.</li>
<li>Tesla (TSLA) refused to deliver vehicles to customers who ordered via Pinduoduo (PDD).</li>
<li>JD.com (JD) did not extend the contract with Alibaba (BABA)’s Sto Express (002468 CN),</li>
<li>Tencent (700 HK) started mini-store in its WeChat for small retailers.</li>
</ul>


Apple (APPL) stores are still crowded.
Tesla (TSLA) refused to deliver vehicles to customers who ordered via Pinduoduo (PDD).
JD.com (JD) did not extend the contract with Alibaba (BABA)’s Sto Express (002468 CN),
Tencent (700 HK) started mini-store in its WeChat for small retailers.


China Internet Weekly (24Aug2020): TSLA Refused PDD’s Customers, JD Fired BABA’s Sto Express

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a>  held its latest Architecture Day on August 13 last, a virtual event led by the company's newly appointed Chief Architect, Raja Koduri. The event featured an impressive lineup of Intel fellows and architects, each providing details on the progress the company is making on its so-called six pillars of technology innovation namely: process and packaging, architecture, memory, interconnects, security and software.Intel's Architecture Day 2020 featured multiple, notable new disclosures and was generally well received by the media. However, the elephant in the room, i.e. the continuing erosion of Intel's process technology leadership, rated not a single mention. Instead, much emphasis was placed on improvements to Intel's 10nm transistor design, dubbed SuperFin, which apparently will deliver the company's biggest ever intra-node performance improvement. Here's what Intel had to say about their new SuperFin transistor among other things.

Intel  held its latest Architecture Day on August 13 last, a virtual event led by the company's newly appointed Chief Architect, Raja Koduri. The event featured an impressive lineup of Intel fellows and architects, each providing details on the progress the company is making on its so-called six pillars of technology innovation namely: process and packaging, architecture, memory, interconnects, security and software.Intel's Architecture Day 2020 featured multiple, notable new disclosures and was generally well received by the media. However, the elephant in the room, i.e. the continuing erosion of Intel's process technology leadership, rated not a single mention. Instead, much emphasis was placed on improvements to Intel's 10nm transistor design, dubbed SuperFin, which apparently will deliver the company's biggest ever intra-node performance improvement. Here's what Intel had to say about their new SuperFin transistor among other things. 

Intel Architecture Day 2020. Forget 7nm, We've Got SuperFins!

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Server CPU, DRAM, NAND Sales Heading For A Significant Decline As Inventory Digestion Commences.

A leading indicator for server sales

William Keating

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

The long-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm Holdings (ARM LN)

William Keating

The Xbox Series S – Minimalism Done Wrong

So apparently after Sony decided to go with “RGB wireless router stuck on blue” as its design theme, Microsoft decided to one up them with a...

Mio Kato

China Internet Weekly (24Aug2020): TSLA Refused PDD’s Customers, JD Fired BABA’s Sto Express

Apple (APPL) stores are still crowded. Tesla (TSLA) refused to deliver vehicles to customers who ordered via Pinduoduo (PDD). JD.com (JD) did not...

Ming Lu

Intel Architecture Day 2020. Forget 7nm, We've Got SuperFins!

Intel held its latest Architecture Day on August 13 last, a virtual event led by the company's newly appointed Chief Architect, Raja Koduri. The...

William Keating

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