Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We believe Nvidia’s recent massive outperformance vs. the market and TSMC is unwarranted. </li>
<li>It appears to ignore significant risks to its market position from a resurgent AMD and market entry by Intel which we expect to be highly credible. </li>
<li>We also think the scramble for share within TSMC could disadvantage Nvidia.</li>
</ul>


We believe Nvidia’s recent massive outperformance vs. the market and TSMC is unwarranted. 
It appears to ignore significant risks to its market position from a resurgent AMD and market entry by Intel which we expect to be highly credible. 
We also think the scramble for share within TSMC could disadvantage Nvidia.


TSMC – Long TSMC Short Nvidia Looks Exceptionally Attractive

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel announced it will spin its Mobileye division in 2022, reportedly at a $50 B valuation.</li>
<li>This should allow Intel to raise $10B, which helps out on the accelerated capex plans to transition to a foundry strategy without further cutting into buybacks or the dividend.</li>
<li>Non-Needle mover on the rest of the business, where Intel will continue to see margin pressures due to share losses and lack of pricing power on its PC/Server chips.</li>
</ul>


Intel announced it will spin its Mobileye division in 2022, reportedly at a $50 B valuation.
This should allow Intel to raise $10B, which helps out on the accelerated capex plans to transition to a foundry strategy without further cutting into buybacks or the dividend.
Non-Needle mover on the rest of the business, where Intel will continue to see margin pressures due to share losses and lack of pricing power on its PC/Server chips.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>While the world has been battling with semiconductor shortage for the past year, semiconductor giant Intel has faced its fair share of challenges from relatively smaller players like AMD that have eaten into its market share in many key segments.</li><li>Intel has been a major player in this space and losing market share to AMD has been a definite setback for Intel.</li><li>Both these companies are financially solid but the question here is – which is expected to be the better performer?.</li></ul>

While the world has been battling with semiconductor shortage for the past year, semiconductor giant Intel has faced its fair share of challenges from relatively smaller players like AMD that have eaten into its market share in many key segments.Intel has been a major player in this space and losing market share to AMD has been a definite setback for Intel.Both these companies are financially solid but the question here is – which is expected to be the better performer?.

Intel vs. AMD - Which Semiconductors Player Is The Better Fundamental Pick? (11/2021)

<ul><li>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported another solid result surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>The management actually raised its full-year guidance, on the back of solid demand for its chips.</li><li>The increasing demand for gaming consoles from Sony and Microsoft, which use AMD's semi-custom processors is also a major growth driver.</li></ul>

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported another solid result surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.The management actually raised its full-year guidance, on the back of solid demand for its chips.The increasing demand for gaming consoles from Sony and Microsoft, which use AMD's semi-custom processors is also a major growth driver.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. - Investment Thesis

<p>Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC – Long TSMC Short Nvidia Looks Exceptionally Attractive

We believe Nvidia’s recent massive outperformance vs. the market and TSMC is unwarranted as it ignores risks to Nvidia's market position from a...

Mio Kato

Intel's Mobileye Spin

The capital raise doesn’t matter in the context of the 90% of Intel’s business which is losing share in PCs and Servers to AMD/Nvidia. FCF will...

Aaron Gabin

Intel vs. AMD - Which Semiconductors Player Is The Better Fundamental Pick? (11/2021)

While the world has been battling with semiconductor shortage for the past year, semiconductor giant Intel has faced its fair share of challenges...

Baptista Research

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. - Investment Thesis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported another solid result surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings. The...

Baptista Research

Intel 3Q21: Delusions of a Madman

If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible. Like believing Intel is poised to grow...

Aaron Gabin

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