Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year.  Trump and Bessent have both softened their statements toward China and indicated a lowering of tariffs.</li>
<li>Container ship bookings dropped off a cliff after Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement.  </li>
<li>Trade negotiations are expected to take months or years, and will not change the bear market in the USD, equities, and treasuries as foreigners pull money from US asset markets.</li>
</ul>


The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year.  Trump and Bessent have both softened their statements toward China and indicated a lowering of tariffs.
Container ship bookings dropped off a cliff after Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement.   
Trade negotiations are expected to take months or years, and will not change the bear market in the USD, equities, and treasuries as foreigners pull money from US asset markets.


The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wistron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2189:1" rel="noopener">Wistron Corp (3231 TT)</a> is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.</li>
<li>On 2nd Apr 2025, Wistron announced that it had received its board’s approval to sell up to 250m common shares via a GDR offering.</li>
<li>Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.</li>
</ul>



Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
On 2nd Apr 2025, Wistron announced that it had received its board’s approval to sell up to 250m common shares via a GDR offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.


Wistron GDR Early Look - Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.</li>
<li>Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  </li>
</ul>


After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.

Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.</li>
<li>Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.</li>
</ul>


Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.</li>
<li>Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 


TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!

The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year. Trump and Bessent have both softened statements and indicated a lowering of...

David Mudd

Wistron GDR Early Look - Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

Wistron Corporation is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming GDRs offering. Wistron announced of its board’s approval to sell up to 250m...

Akshat Shah

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

New Intel CEO initiates restructuring, sells 51% of Altera to Silver Lake, raising questions about Intel Corp IFS clients.

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

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Market Cap (USDm)

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The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!

The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year. Trump and Bessent have both softened statements and indicated a lowering of...

David Mudd

Wistron GDR Early Look - Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

Wistron Corporation is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming GDRs offering. Wistron announced of its board’s approval to sell up to 250m...

Akshat Shah

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

​New Intel CEO initiates restructuring, sells 51% of Altera to Silver Lake, raising questions about Intel Corp IFS clients.

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

​TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

New Intel CEO initiates restructuring, sells 51% of Altera to Silver Lake, raising questions about Intel Corp IFS clients.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...