Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  </li>
<li>2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.</li>
<li>Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).</li>
</ul>


2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).


SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes</li>
<li>Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products</li>
<li>We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally</li>
</ul>


TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally


TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>There is speculation that the cost of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  </li>
<li>In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.</li>
</ul>


There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.

Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Patrick Liao

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SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

​Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

​TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

​Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Patrick Liao

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...