Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.</li><li>This last year was the year of AI through and through.</li><li>There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.</li></ul>

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.This last year was the year of AI through and through.There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>After the peak of 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> could present products around 1Q26.</li>
<li>TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. </li>
</ul>


After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  
TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>'s key turning point is its dedication to developing High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology, which has finally paid off.</li>
<li>In the third quarter of 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> continued to surpass <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> net earnings based on their financial results.   </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> is reportedly exploring partnership opportunities with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) in the realm of HBM, aiming to strengthen its ties with NVIDIA.</li>
</ul>



SK Hynix (000660 KS)'s key turning point is its dedication to developing High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology, which has finally paid off.
In the third quarter of 2024, SK Hynix (000660 KS) continued to surpass Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) net earnings based on their financial results.   

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is reportedly exploring partnership opportunities with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) in the realm of HBM, aiming to strengthen its ties with NVIDIA.


SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion on the future of Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, including concerns about growth and competition</li><li>Analysis of the potential impact of custom ASICs on Nvidia's market dominance and revenue growth</li><li>Consideration of the performance and prospects of major tech companies like Apple, AMD, Intel, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in relation to AI and cloud software developments.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Discussion on the future of Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, including concerns about growth and competitionAnalysis of the potential impact of custom ASICs on Nvidia's market dominance and revenue growthConsideration of the performance and prospects of major tech companies like Apple, AMD, Intel, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in relation to AI and cloud software developments.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

<ul>
<li>Regardless of the circumstances, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  </li>
<li>A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.</li>
<li>For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  </li>
</ul>


Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings

SK Hynix's focus on HBM technology pays off, surpassing Samsung Electronics in earnings. Samsung explores partnership with TSMC for HBM development.

Patrick Liao

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

The discussion focused on the semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia's performance, with questions raised about its future growth and...

The Circuit

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

​TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings

​SK Hynix's focus on HBM technology pays off, surpassing Samsung Electronics in earnings. Samsung explores partnership with TSMC for HBM development.

Patrick Liao

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

The discussion focused on the semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia's performance, with questions raised about its future growth and...

The Circuit

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

​Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

SK Hynix's focus on HBM technology pays off, surpassing Samsung Electronics in earnings. Samsung explores partnership with TSMC for HBM development.

Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...