Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

MetaX Integrated Circuits / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, we forecast 4 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 10 constituent changes for the STAR100 Index in June.</li>
<li>Estimated turnover is 6.7% for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 13.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip net trade is CNY 20.15bn (US$2.95bn).</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few weeks and months. The forecast deletes have been pressured by ETF redemptions as momentum continues in the adds.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, we forecast 4 constituent changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 10 constituent changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
Estimated turnover is 6.7% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 13.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip net trade is CNY 20.15bn (US$2.95bn).
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few weeks and months. The forecast deletes have been pressured by ETF redemptions as momentum continues in the adds.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Huge Outperformance, ETF Redemptions & Fast Entry Conundrum

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 1Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows in 1Q2026 were US$1,441 million and holdings were US$379 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNICATION, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, ZHEJIANG CENTURY HUATONG, Luxshare Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 1Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the outflows in 1Q2026 were US$1,441 million and holdings were US$379 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNICATION, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, ZHEJIANG CENTURY HUATONG, Luxshare Precision.


Northbound Flows (1Q2026): CATL, CATL, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro, MONTAGE TECHNOLOGY, JINKO SOLAR, MGI TECH.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro, MONTAGE TECHNOLOGY, JINKO SOLAR, MGI TECH.


STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Feb): CAMBRICON, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, 10 changes for the STAR100 Index and 2 changes for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 9% for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 27.6bn (US$4bn). One-way turnover for the STAR100 Index is 9.2%.</li>
<li>With the National Team redeeming ETFs, the adds have outperformed the deletes for all the indices and that could continue ahead of implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX), 10 changes for the STAR100 Index and 2 changes for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 9% for the STAR50 INDEX resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 27.6bn (US$4bn). One-way turnover for the STAR100 Index is 9.2%.
With the National Team redeeming ETFs, the adds have outperformed the deletes for all the indices and that could continue ahead of implementation of the changes.


STAR50/STAR100/STAR Chip Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes as Trade Nears US$6bn

Wanhua Chemical Group Co A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the March rebalance, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wanhua-chemical-group-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5049:1" rel="noopener">Wanhua Chemical Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cssc-holdings-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2464:1" rel="noopener">China CSSC Holdings</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crrc-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:122:1" rel="noopener">CRRC Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd-675cb9b4-f4fb-4317-9df7-75e3849a2f5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:885:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank</a>. There are a few other stocks that are close.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 7 months and the gap has kept getting wider.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the March rebalance, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (2822 HK). 

Wanhua Chemical Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace CRRC Corp and China Everbright Bank. There are a few other stocks that are close.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 7 months and the gap has kept getting wider.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in March

China

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China manufactures micro-fabrication equipment. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells semiconductor equipment. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China provides its products for semiconductor and adjacent high technology industries.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Huge Outperformance, ETF Redemptions & Fast Entry Conundrum

There could be 4 changes for the STAR50 and 10 for the STAR100 in June. Fast Entry inclusions depend on the index committee. ETF redemptions...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (1Q2026): CATL, CATL, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 1Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNICATION.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Feb): CAMBRICON, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50/STAR100/STAR Chip Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes as Trade Nears US$6bn

There are 3 changes for the STAR50, 10 changes for the STAR100, 2 changes for the STAR Chip in March. The adds have outperformed the deletes across...

Brian Freitas

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in March

There could be 2 changes in March. Passive impact is 0.2-0.5x ADV but momentum has led to the forecast adds outperforming by a big margin over the...

Brian Freitas

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