Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) could have a long way to tumble only -18% from its recent highs with almost zero short interest.</li>
<li>Defense doesn’t seem to be reacting to the spectre of increased conflict in Iran with US names weak again setting a poor tone for Japanese names.</li>
<li>Nintendo launches its Super Mario galaxy movie tomorrow so may get a bit of a bid on expectations it does as well as the initial film.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) could have a long way to tumble only -18% from its recent highs with almost zero short interest.
Defense doesn’t seem to be reacting to the spectre of increased conflict in Iran with US names weak again setting a poor tone for Japanese names.
Nintendo launches its Super Mario galaxy movie tomorrow so may get a bit of a bid on expectations it does as well as the initial film.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set for a Rough Open as Quarter End Profit Taking Hits Winners

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
<strong>Most overbought</strong>:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP)<strong> Most oversold</strong>: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP) Most oversold: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)


WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: CATL, Advantest Corp, Tokyo Electron, Zijin Mining, NIFTY

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>US equity indices plunged Friday amid rising Middle East tensions and WTI +3%, with S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq each falling over 2% on the week.</li>
<li>Japanese stocks demonstrated resilience but remained highly sensitive to headlines on oil supply risks and Middle East developments, with limited domestic offsets.</li>
<li>Tokio Marine (+24%) confirmed a strategic partnership with Berkshire Hathaway’s National Indemnity, which will acquire a 2.5% stake for ¥290bn alongside reinsurance collaboration and potential joint M&amp;A</li>
</ul>


US equity indices plunged Friday amid rising Middle East tensions and WTI +3%, with S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq each falling over 2% on the week.
Japanese stocks demonstrated resilience but remained highly sensitive to headlines on oil supply risks and Middle East developments, with limited domestic offsets.
Tokio Marine (+24%) confirmed a strategic partnership with Berkshire Hathaway’s National Indemnity, which will acquire a 2.5% stake for ¥290bn alongside reinsurance collaboration and potential joint M&amp;A


Japan Strategy Weekly | Surging Energy Costs

<ul>
<li>News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.</li>
<li>This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.</li>
<li>Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.</li>
</ul>


News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.
This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.
Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.


Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

<ul>
<li>AI lower with the US looking to impose global AI chip sales permits, although memory rallied in a general rotation to laggards.</li>
<li>Broadcom CEO throwing cold water on DC optical connectivity 'scale-up', sending Corning, Lumentum and Coherent lower setting a dour tone for JP cable plays.</li>
<li>Kioxia and PPIH make it into the NKY225, which Advantest gets capped as expected. Small surprise for Kioxia, but ADV is low for all.</li>
</ul>


AI lower with the US looking to impose global AI chip sales permits, although memory rallied in a general rotation to laggards.
Broadcom CEO throwing cold water on DC optical connectivity 'scale-up', sending Corning, Lumentum and Coherent lower setting a dour tone for JP cable plays.
Kioxia and PPIH make it into the NKY225, which Advantest gets capped as expected. Small surprise for Kioxia, but ADV is low for all.


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Spike Starting to Bite with Airlines Tumbling on the Outlook for Fuel

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set for a Rough Open as Quarter End Profit Taking Hits Winners

Japan's AI names face a brutal open as quarter end selling accelerates. Kioxia an easy pole to slide down with almost no short interest and not far...

Andrew Jackson

WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: CATL, Advantest Corp, Tokyo Electron, Zijin Mining, NIFTY

Weekly Macro Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setups - Quantitative models tracking momentum extremes across Asian/Global equities and commodities to...

Nico Rosti

Japan Strategy Weekly | Surging Energy Costs

US stocks dropped due to Middle East tensions, while Japanese stocks remained sensitive to oil supply risks. Tokio Marine partners with Berkshire...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Brent surges as high as $111 this morning as hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei in voted in as Iran's next supreme leader. After the dust settles SPE will...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Spike Starting to Bite with Airlines Tumbling on the Outlook for Fuel

Shippers were lower globally after a slightly better day in Asia yesterday. Big drops for US airlines. Continues to look good for long 9202 ANA vs...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set for a Rough Open as Quarter End Profit Taking Hits Winners

Japan's AI names face a brutal open as quarter end selling accelerates. Kioxia an easy pole to slide down with almost no short interest and not far...

Andrew Jackson

WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: CATL, Advantest Corp, Tokyo Electron, Zijin Mining, NIFTY

Weekly Macro Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setups - Quantitative models tracking momentum extremes across Asian/Global equities and commodities to...

Nico Rosti

Japan Strategy Weekly | Surging Energy Costs

​US stocks dropped due to Middle East tensions, while Japanese stocks remained sensitive to oil supply risks. Tokio Marine partners with Berkshire...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Brent surges as high as $111 this morning as hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei in voted in as Iran's next supreme leader. After the dust settles SPE will...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Spike Starting to Bite with Airlines Tumbling on the Outlook for Fuel

Shippers were lower globally after a slightly better day in Asia yesterday. Big drops for US airlines. Continues to look good for long 9202 ANA vs...

Andrew Jackson

US stocks dropped due to Middle East tensions, while Japanese stocks remained sensitive to oil supply risks. Tokio Marine partners with Berkshire...