Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
<strong>Most overbought</strong>: META, Bank of China, USO/Oil, China Construction Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial. <strong>Most oversold</strong>: NeatEase Cloud Music, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Gold, Shin Etsu Chemical</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought: META, Bank of China, USO/Oil, China Construction Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial. Most oversold: NeatEase Cloud Music, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Gold, Shin Etsu Chemical


WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Advantest Corp, Bank of China, BYD

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2026 Nikkei 225 Review was announced today. Results are discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep26-rebal-results-3-adds-3-dels-no-new-rules-impact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:266702" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact</a>. </li>
<li>Things went roughly as predicted for the selection of data they chose (there was a question about industry categorisation). Some people questioned discretionary ordering. That's settled. </li>
<li>With 92% of the Mar27 rebal data period behind us, we take a brief look at what the March 2027 rebal. It's kind of confusing. The third delete is tough. </li>
</ul>


The September 2026 Nikkei 225 Review was announced today. Results are discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact. 
Things went roughly as predicted for the selection of data they chose (there was a question about industry categorisation). Some people questioned discretionary ordering. That's settled. 
With 92% of the Mar27 rebal data period behind us, we take a brief look at what the March 2027 rebal. It's kind of confusing. The third delete is tough. 


[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Committee <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20260904E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the Sep26 Nikkei 225 Average review. There are 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs. </li>
<li>The 3 ADDs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capcom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1459:1" rel="noopener">Capcom Co Ltd (9697)</a>. Three DELETEs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konica-minolta-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17287:1" rel="noopener">Konica Minolta (4902)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanadevia-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14969:1" rel="noopener">Kanadevia (7004)</a>. Limited surprises here. </li>
<li>I had Food &amp; Life (3563) instead of Capcom and I had Kanadevia just under the liquidity kickout threshold. Flows are still big (~US$4.7bn a side). Funding is +167 baskets.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Committee announced the Sep26 Nikkei 225 Average review. There are 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs. 
The 3 ADDs are Kokusai Electric (6525), JX Advanced Metals (5016), and Capcom Co Ltd (9697). Three DELETEs are Archion (543A), Konica Minolta (4902) , and Kanadevia (7004). Limited surprises here. 
I had Food &amp; Life (3563) instead of Capcom and I had Kanadevia just under the liquidity kickout threshold. Flows are still big (~US$4.7bn a side). Funding is +167 baskets.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>More tech weakness in the US but most names off their lows, with Japan futures pointing to a recovery</li>
<li>Big margin calls yesterday at Japanese retail brokers may see continued forced selling in the most crowded names.</li>
<li>A quick glance at names with upside catalysts/strong fundamental drivers which should have room to run on an overall market recovery.</li>
</ul>


More tech weakness in the US but most names off their lows, with Japan futures pointing to a recovery
Big margin calls yesterday at Japanese retail brokers may see continued forced selling in the most crowded names.
A quick glance at names with upside catalysts/strong fundamental drivers which should have room to run on an overall market recovery.


Japan Morning Connection: 7453 JP, 4307 JP, 6857 JP

<ul>
<li>Meta and MSFT commented they are seeing benefits from their AI investments, pointing to increased capex positive for JP SPE names.</li>
<li>Advantest upgrading its tester market outlook for both SoC and memory over a solid 1Q earnings print will be positive for 6871 Micronics ahead of numbers.</li>
<li>Japan off the China export ban for now, however the US is unlikely to rollover and allow China unfettered access to cutting edge tech.</li>
</ul>


Meta and MSFT commented they are seeing benefits from their AI investments, pointing to increased capex positive for JP SPE names.
Advantest upgrading its tester market outlook for both SoC and memory over a solid 1Q earnings print will be positive for 6871 Micronics ahead of numbers.
Japan off the China export ban for now, however the US is unlikely to rollover and allow China unfettered access to cutting edge tech.


Japan Morning Connection - 6857 JP, 6871 JP, 6525 JP

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Advantest Corp, Bank of China, BYD

Weekly Global Macro Tactical Recap: our models tracks trends across asset classes to highlight overbought/oversold market conditions across Asian...

Nico Rosti

[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 results are announced. That means we can have a pretty good look at what happens in March 2027 (though the choice of Capcom vs...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 Review turned out slightly different than expected. One change is a toss-up. The other is more of a question. The three ADDs...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: 7453 JP, 4307 JP, 6857 JP

US tech stocks showing weakness but on the rebound. Japanese market may see forced selling due to margin calls. Discussion of stocks with...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection - 6857 JP, 6871 JP, 6525 JP

Meta and MSFT's AI gains boost capex and JP SPE names. Advantest's strong outlook aids Micronics. Japan lifts China export ban, but US likely to...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Advantest Corp, Bank of China, BYD

Weekly Global Macro Tactical Recap: our models tracks trends across asset classes to highlight overbought/oversold market conditions across Asian...

Nico Rosti

[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 results are announced. That means we can have a pretty good look at what happens in March 2027 (though the choice of Capcom vs...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 Review turned out slightly different than expected. One change is a toss-up. The other is more of a question. The three ADDs...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: 7453 JP, 4307 JP, 6857 JP

​US tech stocks showing weakness but on the rebound. Japanese market may see forced selling due to margin calls. Discussion of stocks with...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection - 6857 JP, 6871 JP, 6525 JP

Meta and MSFT's AI gains boost capex and JP SPE names. Advantest's strong outlook aids Micronics. Japan lifts China export ban, but US likely to...

Andrew Jackson

US tech stocks showing weakness but on the rebound. Japanese market may see forced selling due to margin calls. Discussion of stocks with...