Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. </li>
<li>Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a> will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.</li>
<li>This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.</li>
</ul>


Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. 
Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and Aeon Delight (9787 JP) will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.
This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.


Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

<ul>
<li>In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha &amp; Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we'll take it.</li>
<li>That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.</li>
<li>What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It's worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It's good.</li>
</ul>


In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha &amp; Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we'll take it.
That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It's worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It's good.


Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio - Pounding the Table

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> MBO. </li>
<li>Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. </li>
<li>The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). </li>
</ul>


On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO. 
Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. 
The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.</li>
<li>PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>, XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)</a> effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha (3391 JP) and Welcia (3141 JP) may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.
PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for GAPack (468 HK), XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. 

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>'s (expected) unconditional MGO. A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger was also discussed. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings (AVJ AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-boqi-environmental-hol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26771:1" rel="noopener">China Boqi Environmental (2377 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN (1310 HK)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed this week: Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)'s (expected) unconditional MGO. A Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger was also discussed. 
Key updates/news took place on: AVJennings (AVJ AU),  GAPack (468 HK), Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK), Canvest (1381 HK), China Boqi Environmental (2377 HK), and HKBN (1310 HK).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sun Art Retail, AVJennings, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, Boqi, Get Nice

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio - Pounding the Table

Tsuruha and Welcia are expected to merge next year after determining their integration plan and merger ratio by end-2025. The fundamentals (PER, EV...

Travis Lundy

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sun Art Retail, AVJennings, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, Boqi, Get Nice

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Aeon has announced a Tender Offer for facilities maintenance subsidiary Aeon Delight. It's an all-time high, but the TOB Premium on Aeon Delight is...

Travis Lundy

Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio - Pounding the Table

Tsuruha and Welcia are expected to merge next year after determining their integration plan and merger ratio by end-2025. The fundamentals (PER, EV...

Travis Lundy

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sun Art Retail, AVJennings, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, Boqi, Get Nice

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett