Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.</li>
<li>On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.</li>
<li>The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.</li>
</ul>


In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.
On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.
The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025</li>
<li>But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.</li>
<li>More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.</li>
</ul>


OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025
But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.
More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.


OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The disparity between the leading footwear retailers continues to widen.</li>
<li>ABC Mart is pulling so far ahead that it has the market almost to itself. </li>
<li>Chiyoda may have finally turned the corner but G-Foot may need further financial support from Aeon.</li>
</ul>


The disparity between the leading footwear retailers continues to widen.
ABC Mart is pulling so far ahead that it has the market almost to itself. 
Chiyoda may have finally turned the corner but G-Foot may need further financial support from Aeon.


ABC Mart Forges Further Ahead of Competitors

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 4 December, Bloomberg reported that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> MBO is set to include plans for a US Assets IPO to raise more than JPY1 trillion. </li>
<li>The MBO faces two immediate challenges: securing financing and the Board’s approval. The US Assets IPO would help alleviate both these issues.</li>
<li>The potential market cap of US Assets is around US$24 billion, or 53% of 7&amp;i’s market cap. The US Assets IPO should also encourage Couche-Tard to persist with its offer. </li>
</ul>


On 4 December, Bloomberg reported that the Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO is set to include plans for a US Assets IPO to raise more than JPY1 trillion. 
The MBO faces two immediate challenges: securing financing and the Board’s approval. The US Assets IPO would help alleviate both these issues.
The potential market cap of US Assets is around US$24 billion, or 53% of 7&amp;i’s market cap. The US Assets IPO should also encourage Couche-Tard to persist with its offer. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Starting to Shape Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). </li>
<li>Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. </li>
<li>Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai <a href="https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/842158" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of &lt;5% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keikyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3371:1" rel="noopener">Keikyu Corp (9006 JP)</a> and &lt;1% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>. Shares in both jumped.</li>
</ul>


13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). 
Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. 
Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai wrote activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of &lt;5% in Keikyu Corp (9006 JP) and &lt;1% in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP). Shares in both jumped.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Over the weekend, Japanese media outlets reported that Tsuruha and Welcia would advance merger plans by 2 years, merging as early as end-2025,...

Travis Lundy

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

ABC Mart Forges Further Ahead of Competitors

ABC Mart is dominating the footwear retail market, leaving competitors like Chiyoda and G-Foot struggling to keep up. ABC also has a strong growth...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Starting to Shape Up

The US Assets IPO would help the founding family secure financing and the Board's recommendation. However, it would also encourage Couche-Tard to...

Arun George

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Toyo Keizai put out an article on Keisei based on a quote from a "market insider". Keisei shares popped 16% in 2 days. There's value, but less than...

Travis Lundy

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Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Over the weekend, Japanese media outlets reported that Tsuruha and Welcia would advance merger plans by 2 years, merging as early as end-2025,...

Travis Lundy

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

​OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

ABC Mart Forges Further Ahead of Competitors

​ABC Mart is dominating the footwear retail market, leaving competitors like Chiyoda and G-Foot struggling to keep up. ABC also has a strong growth...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Starting to Shape Up

The US Assets IPO would help the founding family secure financing and the Board's recommendation. However, it would also encourage Couche-Tard to...

Arun George

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Toyo Keizai put out an article on Keisei based on a quote from a "market insider". Keisei shares popped 16% in 2 days. There's value, but less than...

Travis Lundy

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

ABC Mart is dominating the footwear retail market, leaving competitors like Chiyoda and G-Foot struggling to keep up. ABC also has a strong growth...