IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a> is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. </li>
<li>Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. </li>
<li>While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. </li>
</ul>



Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. 
Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. 
While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. 


Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> will offer a fixed exchange ratio of 0.98 Zip shares per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a> share, implying a 22% premium to Sezzle’s last close price. </li>
<li>The completion conditions include Zip and Sezzle shareholder approval along with regulatory approval. The exchange ratio is fair compared to historical ranges, in our view.</li>
<li>Considering the weak investor sentiment of the BNPL sector and ongoing sector consolidation, the proposed merger is a good solution for both sets of shareholders.  </li>
</ul>



Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) will offer a fixed exchange ratio of 0.98 Zip shares per Sezzle Inc (SZL AU) share, implying a 22% premium to Sezzle’s last close price. 
The completion conditions include Zip and Sezzle shareholder approval along with regulatory approval. The exchange ratio is fair compared to historical ranges, in our view.
Considering the weak investor sentiment of the BNPL sector and ongoing sector consolidation, the proposed merger is a good solution for both sets of shareholders.  


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip (Z1P AU)</a></strong> is <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02493104-2A1359887?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offering</a> 0.98 Zip shares for every <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle (SZL AU)</a></strong> share, a 22% premium to last close.  Zip is raising $148.7mn to fund the deal.</li>
<li>Sezzle is incorporated in Delaware, therefore the merger is subject to those takeover rules, not ASX rules. </li>
<li>Zip reported a $214.3mn today.  As Quinlan Associates put it, the Asia Pacific BNPL industry is more like "Buy Now, Pray Later". </li>
</ul>



Zip (Z1P AU) is offering 0.98 Zip shares for every Sezzle (SZL AU) share, a 22% premium to last close.  Zip is raising $148.7mn to fund the deal.
Sezzle is incorporated in Delaware, therefore the merger is subject to those takeover rules, not ASX rules. 
Zip reported a $214.3mn today.  As Quinlan Associates put it, the Asia Pacific BNPL industry is more like "Buy Now, Pray Later". 


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>Total revenue jumped to $361M, 77% YoY, and the number of active merchants reached a record of ~168,000 in FY Q2 2022.</li>
<li>The number of active consumers skyrocketed by 150% YoY to 11.2 million, and GMV more than doubled year-over-year in reporting period. </li>
<li>Growth of key operating and financial metrics was driven by the strong holiday season, adoption of Shop Pay Installments, and partnership with Amazon. </li>
</ul>


Total revenue jumped to $361M, 77% YoY, and the number of active merchants reached a record of ~168,000 in FY Q2 2022.
The number of active consumers skyrocketed by 150% YoY to 11.2 million, and GMV more than doubled year-over-year in reporting period. 
Growth of key operating and financial metrics was driven by the strong holiday season, adoption of Shop Pay Installments, and partnership with Amazon. 


Affirm FY Q2 2022 Earnings Review: Leading BNPL Player Maintains Its Hyper-Growth Trajectory

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>FY22 revenue guidance which was lowered in 3Q (from 20% to 18%) was lowered again (to 15-17%) and is below the company’s medium term targets it issued a year ago.  </li>
<li>FY22 EPS guidance was lowered to ~$4.60-4.75 (1.6% yoy at midpoint) vs. $5.24 consensus.</li>
<li>We think PYPL comes in at $5 and returns to 20% EPS growth in 2023, putting it a ~20x trough forward P/E multiple today.</li>
</ul>


FY22 revenue guidance which was lowered in 3Q (from 20% to 18%) was lowered again (to 15-17%) and is below the company’s medium term targets it issued a year ago.  
FY22 EPS guidance was lowered to ~$4.60-4.75 (1.6% yoy at midpoint) vs. $5.24 consensus.
We think PYPL comes in at $5 and returns to 20% EPS growth in 2023, putting it a ~20x trough forward P/E multiple today.


Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Zip Finally Lobs an Offer for Sezzle

Zip will offer a fixed exchange ratio of 0.98 Zip shares per Sezzle share, implying A$2.17 per Sezzle share. The exchange ratio is fair compared to...

Arun George

Zip To Merge With BNPL Rival Sezzle

Assuming no regulatory/shareholder roadblocks, this looks done. Keep a lookout for other BNPL players, now that Afterpay Touch, Affirm Holdings,...

David Blennerhassett

Affirm FY Q2 2022 Earnings Review: Leading BNPL Player Maintains Its Hyper-Growth Trajectory

Affirm’s valuation looks attractive after market sell-off. Leading BNPL player continues to grow rapidly and maintains its hyper-growth trajectory.

Andrei Zakharov

Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

Once Paypal works its way through the tough comps, the narrative for 2H22 of reaccelerating growth will put it back in the hearts of GARP...

Aaron Gabin

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Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The tech sell-off is an...

Arun George

Zip Finally Lobs an Offer for Sezzle

Zip will offer a fixed exchange ratio of 0.98 Zip shares per Sezzle share, implying A$2.17 per Sezzle share. The exchange ratio is fair compared to...

Arun George

Zip To Merge With BNPL Rival Sezzle

Assuming no regulatory/shareholder roadblocks, this looks done. Keep a lookout for other BNPL players, now that Afterpay Touch, Affirm Holdings,...

David Blennerhassett

Affirm FY Q2 2022 Earnings Review: Leading BNPL Player Maintains Its Hyper-Growth Trajectory

Affirm’s valuation looks attractive after market sell-off. Leading BNPL player continues to grow rapidly and maintains its hyper-growth trajectory.

Andrei Zakharov

Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

Once Paypal works its way through the tough comps, the narrative for 2H22 of reaccelerating growth will put it back in the hearts of GARP...

Aaron Gabin