TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY22 revenue guidance which was lowered in 3Q (from 20% to 18%) was lowered again (to 15-17%) and is below the company’s medium term targets it issued a year ago.  </li>
<li>FY22 EPS guidance was lowered to ~$4.60-4.75 (1.6% yoy at midpoint) vs. $5.24 consensus.</li>
<li>We think PYPL comes in at $5 and returns to 20% EPS growth in 2023, putting it a ~20x trough forward P/E multiple today.</li>
</ul>


FY22 revenue guidance which was lowered in 3Q (from 20% to 18%) was lowered again (to 15-17%) and is below the company’s medium term targets it issued a year ago.  
FY22 EPS guidance was lowered to ~$4.60-4.75 (1.6% yoy at midpoint) vs. $5.24 consensus.
We think PYPL comes in at $5 and returns to 20% EPS growth in 2023, putting it a ~20x trough forward P/E multiple today.


Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneylion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34686:1" rel="noopener">MoneyLion (ML US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/affirm-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31038:1" rel="noopener">Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)</a> present strong growth credentials, but ML is  several steps ahead towards achieving their shared ambition of becoming a fintech super app</li>
<li>The substantial value premium at which AFRM is currently trading makes no sense given the potential headwinds from heavier regulation and increased competition likely to confront pure-play BNPL companies</li>
<li>A grossly undervalued ML and pricey AFRM offers a pair trade idea with potential to yield an outsized return that could be largely played out during the course of 2022  </li>
</ul>


Both MoneyLion (ML US) and Affirm Holdings (AFRM US) present strong growth credentials, but ML is  several steps ahead towards achieving their shared ambition of becoming a fintech super app
The substantial value premium at which AFRM is currently trading makes no sense given the potential headwinds from heavier regulation and increased competition likely to confront pure-play BNPL companies
A grossly undervalued ML and pricey AFRM offers a pair trade idea with potential to yield an outsized return that could be largely played out during the course of 2022  


SPACTalk: 2022 High Conviction Pair Trade Idea-Why Moneylion Is A Better Choice Than Affirm Holdings

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Affirm Holdings is a buy now, pay later (BNPL) firm with services that can be considered an alternative to credit cards. </li>
<li>Peloton is Affirm’s largest consumer who accounts for about 35.0% of its revenues, the company has struck partnerships with Shopify and Amazon to reduce its dependence on Peloton.</li>
<li>BNPL accounts for a negligible share of e-commerce payments in the US which is expected to expand over the next few years.</li>
</ul>


Affirm Holdings is a buy now, pay later (BNPL) firm with services that can be considered an alternative to credit cards. 
Peloton is Affirm’s largest consumer who accounts for about 35.0% of its revenues, the company has struck partnerships with Shopify and Amazon to reduce its dependence on Peloton.
BNPL accounts for a negligible share of e-commerce payments in the US which is expected to expand over the next few years.


Affirm Holdings: Dominant Leader in BNPL with Strong Growth Prospects Ahead

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Despite its recent partnership with Amazon, we believe the negatives outweigh positives for Affirm Holdings. As such, we expect further downside risk for Affirm in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>Key risk factors for Affirm include slowdown in growth rate of e-commerce, over reliance on Peloton, and the addictive consumption pattern of paying for items one cannot afford.  </li>
<li>The valuations of Affirm Holdings appear to be overvalued as compared to its peers. An additional 30% downside from current levels would be about $77 per share for Affirm Holdings. </li>
</ul>


Despite its recent partnership with Amazon, we believe the negatives outweigh positives for Affirm Holdings. As such, we expect further downside risk for Affirm in the next 6-12 months.
Key risk factors for Affirm include slowdown in growth rate of e-commerce, over reliance on Peloton, and the addictive consumption pattern of paying for items one cannot afford.  
The valuations of Affirm Holdings appear to be overvalued as compared to its peers. An additional 30% downside from current levels would be about $77 per share for Affirm Holdings. 


Affirm Holdings - Addictive BNPL Could Backfire in 2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

Once Paypal works its way through the tough comps, the narrative for 2H22 of reaccelerating growth will put it back in the hearts of GARP...

Aaron Gabin

SPACTalk: 2022 High Conviction Pair Trade Idea-Why Moneylion Is A Better Choice Than Affirm Holdings

AFRM's prevailing Revenue based valuation multiple is 12X higher than ML's and makes for a potentially very lucrative pair trade idea that could...

Robert Sassoon

Affirm Holdings: Dominant Leader in BNPL with Strong Growth Prospects Ahead

Affirm's partnerships with Amazon and Shopify should help reduce its dependence on Peloton. Growing BNPL penetration in the US, recovery in travel...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Affirm Holdings - Addictive BNPL Could Backfire in 2022

Key risk factors for Affirm include slowdown in growth rate of e-commerce, over reliance on Peloton, and the addictive consumption pattern of...

Douglas Kim

Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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