Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. </li>
<li>A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level</li>
</ul>


Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level


Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. </li>
<li>The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.</li>
<li>Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.


S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.</li>
<li>The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.</li>
</ul>


The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

Arun George

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

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