Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Rising US yields are no longer supporting the US Dollar</li>
<li>A move by the Japanese Government Pension Fund has massive implications for global markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Rising US yields are no longer supporting the US Dollar
A move by the Japanese Government Pension Fund has massive implications for global markets


Overview #68 – The Dog that Didn’t Bark

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

<ul>
<li>Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.</li>
<li>Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.</li>
<li>Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.
Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.
Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.


Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).</li>
<li>We currently don't see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.</li>
<li>The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
We currently don't see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)

Overview #68 – The Dog that Didn’t Bark

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at what the recent rise in US government yields didn't affect,...

Rikki Malik

Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Gold has a structural floor from constrained supply and central bank demand, but real yields cap upside, making weakness a more attractive entry...

Duncan Chan

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows

For now, no changes are expected for the GDX ETF rebal in December 2026. Between now and then, there will be ad hoc changes due to the expected...

Travis Lundy

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

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