HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The HSI has declined 3% MTD, but based on history, there is more downside risk. Over the last 10 years, the Index has only returned positively in two September.</li>
<li>October is also not good, and the Index declined an average of 1.9% in the month since 2019. However, November and December are normally the best-performing ones. </li>
<li>Prudent investors should stay conservative until October. By the end of next month, there are opportunities to increase position to take hold of the potential year-end rally. </li>
</ul>


The HSI has declined 3% MTD, but based on history, there is more downside risk. Over the last 10 years, the Index has only returned positively in two September.
October is also not good, and the Index declined an average of 1.9% in the month since 2019. However, November and December are normally the best-performing ones. 
Prudent investors should stay conservative until October. By the end of next month, there are opportunities to increase position to take hold of the potential year-end rally. 


China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 6th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 6th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 6th): Tencent, Meituan, AIA

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 30th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 30th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 30th): Tencent, Aia, Kuaishou Technology

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons</li>
<li>The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs</li>
<li>Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs</li>
</ul>


With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons
The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs
Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs


Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th and highlight short interest changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 6th): Tencent, Meituan, AIA

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 30th): Tencent, Aia, Kuaishou Technology

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

Profit down 75% YoY and revenue down 32% YoY in latest results just out for 1H24. Risks still remain for this company, and potentially worsening...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

​It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th and highlight short interest changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 6th): Tencent, Meituan, AIA

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 30th): Tencent, Aia, Kuaishou Technology

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

Profit down 75% YoY and revenue down 32% YoY in latest results just out for 1H24. Risks still remain for this company, and potentially worsening...

Daniel Tabbush

It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...