Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 21. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short increases in AIA (1299 HK) and Country Garden (2007 HK). </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 21. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short increases in AIA (1299 HK) and Country Garden (2007 HK). 


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China allocations fall to a 2-year low, driven by widespread closures in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> New Oriental Education (EDU US), China Mobile (941 HK) and CNOOC Ltd.</li>
<li>Active GEM Managers head in to 2022 with Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services the key China sector exposures, though Industrial stocks stand out the main overweight.</li>
<li>On a stock level, the most widely held company is Tencent, held by 81% of the managers in our analysis and taking the crown from Alibaba Group in 2021. </li>
</ul>


China allocations fall to a 2-year low, driven by widespread closures in Alibaba Group (BABA US) New Oriental Education (EDU US), China Mobile (941 HK) and CNOOC Ltd.
Active GEM Managers head in to 2022 with Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services the key China sector exposures, though Industrial stocks stand out the main overweight.
On a stock level, the most widely held company is Tencent, held by 81% of the managers in our analysis and taking the crown from Alibaba Group in 2021. 


China:  EM Active Fund Positioning Update.  BABA Drives Allocations Lower

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FWD Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (FWD US)</a> is seeking to raise $2 billion. We outlined the fundamentals in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-ipo-forward-march" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58263" rel="noopener">FWD Group IPO: Forward March</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-vs-aia-vs-prudential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58967" rel="noopener">FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential</a>. </li>
<li>FWD has released its 9M21 results. Like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, the Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21.  </li>
<li>In light of the weak sentiment for Chinese ADRs, we err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of a return to normalcy to recommend the IPO.</li>
</ul>



FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) is seeking to raise $2 billion. We outlined the fundamentals in FWD Group IPO: Forward March and FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential. 
FWD has released its 9M21 results. Like AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), the Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21.  
In light of the weak sentiment for Chinese ADRs, we err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of a return to normalcy to recommend the IPO.


FWD Group IPO: Slow 3Q Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group's (1299.HK) [AIA] limited set of 3Q21 results, where VONB declined 3.5% on a linked quarter basis due weaker new sales volume; </li>
<li>
Many Deal Distractions:AIA has gone on a deal-making spree in 2021, announcing six separate transactions to date; and  </li>
<li>
Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster during COVID-19, struggling with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. </li>
</ul>



Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group's (1299.HK) [AIA] limited set of 3Q21 results, where VONB declined 3.5% on a linked quarter basis due weaker new sales volume; 

Many Deal Distractions:AIA has gone on a deal-making spree in 2021, announcing six separate transactions to date; and  

Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster during COVID-19, struggling with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. 


AIA Group – No Word On Massive Deal Risk

*Challenging Result: Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] reported 3Q21 net profit of SGD 1.2 bn, a SGD 64 mn (5.5%) increase on a linked quarter basis. OCBC’s bottom-line improvement was primarily attributable to a decrease in loss provisions, as credit risk remains elevated; a tax rate decline; and stronger insurer earnings; and*Credit Breaking Down Again: By our calculation, we find that net new NPL growth has increased again to SGD 448 mn or 44.9% on an annualized basis. Given the increase in net new NPLs, reserve would appear to now be wanting by SGD 2.0 bn plus or just under two quarters of bottom-line results.

*Challenging Result: Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] reported 3Q21 net profit of SGD 1.2 bn, a SGD 64 mn (5.5%) increase on a linked quarter basis. OCBC’s bottom-line improvement was primarily attributable to a decrease in loss provisions, as credit risk remains elevated; a tax rate decline; and stronger insurer earnings; and*Credit Breaking Down Again: By our calculation, we find that net new NPL growth has increased again to SGD 448 mn or 44.9% on an annualized basis. Given the increase in net new NPLs, reserve would appear to now be wanting by SGD 2.0 bn plus or just under two quarters of bottom-line results.

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Negative Jaws & Weaker Credit

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

HK Short Interest: AIA, Country Garden

We highlight week on week short increases in AIA (1299 HK) and Country Garden (2007 HK) in the latest Hong Kong SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China: EM Active Fund Positioning Update. BABA Drives Allocations Lower

China allocations fall to 2-year low, driven by widespread closures in Alibaba Group, New Oriental Education, China Mobile and CNOOC Ltd.

Steven Holden

FWD Group IPO: Slow 3Q Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

The Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21. We err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of...

Arun George

AIA Group – No Word On Massive Deal Risk

AIA: AIA reported a limited set of 3Q21 results, where VONB declined 3.5% on a linked quarter basis due weaker new sales volume. No word on AIA's...

Thomas J. Monaco

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Negative Jaws & Weaker Credit

OCBC: OCBC reported a QOQ 3Q21 net profit increase of 5.5%, as it pulled on numerous levers. Net new NPL growth increased 44.9% annualized, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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