HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It’s necessary for investors to understand the “true secret” of Topchoice’s success, which is impossible to copy. This is also the core reason why we’re not optimistic about the company. </li>
<li>The profit margin decline of dental implant and orthodontics businesses is inevitable, not only due to centralized procurement, but also the fierce competition of private dental hospitals in price war.</li>
<li>Topchoice is now paying for its ambition to deviate from its main business. The overall performance in 2022 may not be optimistic. We think Topchoice’s good times are over.</li>
</ul>


It’s necessary for investors to understand the “true secret” of Topchoice’s success, which is impossible to copy. This is also the core reason why we’re not optimistic about the company. 
The profit margin decline of dental implant and orthodontics businesses is inevitable, not only due to centralized procurement, but also the fierce competition of private dental hospitals in price war.
Topchoice is now paying for its ambition to deviate from its main business. The overall performance in 2022 may not be optimistic. We think Topchoice’s good times are over.


Topchoice Medical (600763.CH) - The “True Secret” of Success and the Lost Luck

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 10th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$456.0 million, led by financials, information technology, utilities sectors, and offset by materials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Hundsun Technologies, Byd, Midea, Tongwei, Trina Solar</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 10th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$456.0 million, led by financials, information technology, utilities sectors, and offset by materials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Hundsun Technologies, Byd, Midea, Tongwei, Trina Solar


Northbound Flows (Feb 10th): Ping An Insurance, CATL, Moutai, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Hundsun

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

New Ruipeng Pet Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-ruipeng-pet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36735:1" rel="noopener">New Ruipeng Pet Group (RPET US)</a> is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>New Ruipeng Pet Group (Ruipeng) is a pet services platform, primarily offering pet care services, supply chain services and local services, covering the entire lifecycle of pets. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



New Ruipeng Pet Group (RPET US) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming US IPO.
New Ruipeng Pet Group (Ruipeng) is a pet services platform, primarily offering pet care services, supply chain services and local services, covering the entire lifecycle of pets. 
In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.


New Ruipeng Pet Group Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - Largest Domestic Player, but Smallest Margins

Aier Eye Hospital Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aier launched new hospital acquisition plan. Obviously, Aier hopes to maintain high growth through M&amp;A funds. However, considering its national market layout,Aier is in the final stages of aggressive M&amp;As.</li>
<li>Based on our data, Aier’s endogenous growth is actually very weak. Once external M&amp;As fail to drive high growth, Aier’s overall performance growth would decline significantly. Aier is grossly overvalued.</li>
<li>We expect decreasing birth rate after COVID-19. Due to the fundamental changes in the population structure, the valuation system of all assets would be destroyed - The long logic doesn't exist.</li>
</ul>


Aier launched new hospital acquisition plan. Obviously, Aier hopes to maintain high growth through M&amp;A funds. However, considering its national market layout,Aier is in the final stages of aggressive M&amp;As.
Based on our data, Aier’s endogenous growth is actually very weak. Once external M&amp;As fail to drive high growth, Aier’s overall performance growth would decline significantly. Aier is grossly overvalued.
We expect decreasing birth rate after COVID-19. Due to the fundamental changes in the population structure, the valuation system of all assets would be destroyed - The long logic doesn't exist.


Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.CH) - The Truth Behind the Mirage

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK)</a> has revived.  </li>
<li>We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. </li>
<li>Encouraging recent developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. </li>
</ul>


With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) has revived.  
We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. 
Encouraging recent developments at Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments

China

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd provides ophthalmological services.  The Company's services include ophthalmological diagnosis and treatments.

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Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)

Topchoice Medical (600763.CH) - The “True Secret” of Success and the Lost Luck

Topchoice's success is largely due to its catching up with valuable restructuring opportunity, which won't happen again. It's paying for the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows (Feb 10th): Ping An Insurance, CATL, Moutai, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Hundsun

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, CATL, Moutai, Luzhou Lao Jiao,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

New Ruipeng Pet Group Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - Largest Domestic Player, but Smallest Margins

New Ruipeng Pet Group (RPET US) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Clarence Chu