Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass)...</li>
<li>...with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>Quick reclaims are technically bullish, but we discussed last week how we'd be sellers on rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX(currently 6648), and that remains our playbook.</li>
</ul>


After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass)...
...with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support.
Quick reclaims are technically bullish, but we discussed last week how we'd be sellers on rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX(currently 6648), and that remains our playbook.


Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's latest financial results reflect a mix of operational achievements and challenges identified during their earnings presentation for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025.</li><li>The company showcased robust operational performance with production records set at five of its smelters and one refinery, highlighting its operational stability and efficiency.</li><li>The fourth quarter was marked by strong cash generation and financial performance, with revenue increasing by 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's latest financial results reflect a mix of operational achievements and challenges identified during their earnings presentation for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025.The company showcased robust operational performance with production records set at five of its smelters and one refinery, highlighting its operational stability and efficiency.The fourth quarter was marked by strong cash generation and financial performance, with revenue increasing by 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion.

Alcoa: The Regional Premium Story—How North America & Europe Pricing Could Drive the Next Earnings Upside!

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 performance showcased a nuanced mix of operational strength and strategic undertakings amidst significant external and internal challenges.</li><li>The company reported a decrease in revenue by 1% to $3 billion, attributed primarily to lower volumes and prices in the Alumina segment and unfavorable currency impacts, despite an increase in the Aluminum segment's revenue due to higher metal prices.</li><li>A noteworthy aspect of this quarter was the permanent closure of Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery and the sale of its interest in the Ma'aden joint venture, which yielded a notable financial gain offset by restructuring charges.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 performance showcased a nuanced mix of operational strength and strategic undertakings amidst significant external and internal challenges.The company reported a decrease in revenue by 1% to $3 billion, attributed primarily to lower volumes and prices in the Alumina segment and unfavorable currency impacts, despite an increase in the Aluminum segment's revenue due to higher metal prices.A noteworthy aspect of this quarter was the permanent closure of Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery and the sale of its interest in the Ma'aden joint venture, which yielded a notable financial gain offset by restructuring charges.

Alcoa Corporation: Strategic Partnerships & Supply Chain Developments to Build Resilience Against Supply Chain Disruptions

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Commodities

<ul>
<li>EU ETS at €73–75/tCO₂ and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made carbon a real cost, but it has not forced capacity exit.</li>
<li>China, at roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, remains near full utilisation around the 44–45mt level. Global supply is therefore not constrained unless China tightens.</li>
<li>Despite disruption-driven price strength, broker estimates point to a 0.8mt aluminium surplus in 2026 and 1.6mt in 2027, reflecting higher supply and weaker China demand.</li>
</ul>


EU ETS at €73–75/tCO₂ and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made carbon a real cost, but it has not forced capacity exit.
China, at roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, remains near full utilisation around the 44–45mt level. Global supply is therefore not constrained unless China tightens.
Despite disruption-driven price strength, broker estimates point to a 0.8mt aluminium surplus in 2026 and 1.6mt in 2027, reflecting higher supply and weaker China demand.


Aluminium: Output Holds Despite Rising Carbon Costs

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

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Alcoa (AA US)

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Concerns Persist; $SPX Testing Resistance at 21-day EMA and Near 200-day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact. Actionable ideas within Staples $XLP and...

Vermilion Research

Alcoa: The Regional Premium Story—How North America & Europe Pricing Could Drive the Next Earnings Upside!

Alcoa Corporation's latest financial results reflect a mix of operational achievements and challenges identified during their earnings...

Baptista Research

Alcoa Corporation: Strategic Partnerships & Supply Chain Developments to Build Resilience Against Supply Chain Disruptions

Alcoa Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 performance showcased a nuanced mix of operational strength and strategic undertakings amidst significant...

Baptista Research

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Aluminium: Output Holds Despite Rising Carbon Costs

Aluminium prices are rising, but carbon is not the constraint, tightness comes from disruption and regional availability rather than supply exit.

Duncan Chan

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