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Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Alpha Bank (Alpha) reported €611m in net profit, a 66% jump from FY22, as the bank benefited from an elevated interest rate environment with little impact from deposit migration and strong cost control. Alpha delivered a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 12.9% in FY23, beating its own upgraded target of >11.5%. The increased profitability coupled with a robust capital position (fully loaded common equity tier 1 (FL CET1) of 14.3%) have enabled a proposed dividend of €0.05 a share, subject to regulatory approval. </p>

Alpha Bank (Alpha) reported €611m in net profit, a 66% jump from FY22, as the bank benefited from an elevated interest rate environment with little impact from deposit migration and strong cost control. Alpha delivered a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 12.9% in FY23, beating its own upgraded target of >11.5%. The increased profitability coupled with a robust capital position (fully loaded common equity tier 1 (FL CET1) of 14.3%) have enabled a proposed dividend of €0.05 a share, subject to regulatory approval. 

<p>Alpha Bank is the third largest Greek bank with a presence in Cyprus, Romania, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. Through its subsidiaries, Alpha Bank provides a range of services including banking services (comprising both retail and corporate banking), financing services by providing leasing and factoring solutions, financial services through asset management and brokerage support, investment services (setting up the first private equity/venture capital firm in Greece), real estate management and life insurance. Domestically, it ranks number one in wholesale lending, mutual funds, private banking and credit cards.</p>

Alpha Bank is the third largest Greek bank with a presence in Cyprus, Romania, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. Through its subsidiaries, Alpha Bank provides a range of services including banking services (comprising both retail and corporate banking), financing services by providing leasing and factoring solutions, financial services through asset management and brokerage support, investment services (setting up the first private equity/venture capital firm in Greece), real estate management and life insurance. Domestically, it ranks number one in wholesale lending, mutual funds, private banking and credit cards.

Alpha Bank - The trusted relationship bank of Greece

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

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<h2>ALPHA BANK S.A.</h2>
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<h3>Corporate &amp; Investment Highlights</h3>
<p>Alpha Services and Holdings SA, formerly Alpha Bank SA is a Greece-based banking institution. The Compa- ny offers corporate and retail banking, financial services, investment banking and brokerage services, insur- ance services, real estate management and hotel services. It operates under business segments such as Re- tail Banking, which offers deposit products, loan facilities, debit and credit cards; Corporate Banking, which of- fers working capital facilities, corporate loans, and letters of guarantee, leasing products and factoring services; Asset Management/Insurance, which consists of a range of asset management services as well as insurance products; Investment Banking/Treasury, which includes stock exchange, advisory and brokerage services re- lated to capital markets.</p>
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<p><strong>Important Note:</strong></p>
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<p>Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issue reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by VRS, and VRS does not make any representation as to its accuracy and completeness. Opinions, estimates, and statements nonfactual in nature expressed in its research represent VRS’s judgment as of the date of its reports, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith and without legal responsibility. In addition, there may be instances when fundamental, technical and quantitative opinions, estimates, and statements may not be in concert. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares, warrants, convertible securities or options of “covered companies” by no means. Valuation &amp; Research Specialists (VRS) are the sole creators and distributors of this report.</p>
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ALPHA BANK S.A.




Corporate &amp; Investment Highlights
Alpha Services and Holdings SA, formerly Alpha Bank SA is a Greece-based banking institution. The Compa- ny offers corporate and retail banking, financial services, investment banking and brokerage services, insur- ance services, real estate management and hotel services. It operates under business segments such as Re- tail Banking, which offers deposit products, loan facilities, debit and credit cards; Corporate Banking, which of- fers working capital facilities, corporate loans, and letters of guarantee, leasing products and factoring services; Asset Management/Insurance, which consists of a range of asset management services as well as insurance products; Investment Banking/Treasury, which includes stock exchange, advisory and brokerage services re- lated to capital markets.









Important Note:




Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issue reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by VRS, and VRS does not make any representation as to its accuracy and completeness. Opinions, estimates, and statements nonfactual in nature expressed in its research represent VRS’s judgment as of the date of its reports, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith and without legal responsibility. In addition, there may be instances when fundamental, technical and quantitative opinions, estimates, and statements may not be in concert. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares, warrants, convertible securities or options of “covered companies” by no means. Valuation &amp; Research Specialists (VRS) are the sole creators and distributors of this report.

















ALPHA BANK S.A: Corporate & Investment Highlights

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>Piraeus</strong> dedicates itself mainly to corporate credit (64% of loans) but also to the consumer segment (36%), backed by CASA funding (71% of deposits) and wholesale markets. The bank commands a 31% and 29% share, respectively, of Loans and Deposits in Greece. <strong>Piraeus</strong> is especially strong in Northern Greece where it holds a 40% share of all credit.</p><p>The bank endured a torrid 2020 with Capitalization coming under renewed pressure and modest progress in bringing Asset Quality under better control : true, Asset Quality is much better than at the NPE peak in 2015. FY20/19 results show adverse fundamental momentum and trends with deterioration in Profitability, in NIM, in headline Asset Quality, in Provisioning, and in Capital Adequacy though Efficiency and Liquidity both improved.</p><p> Management states that it in phase 3 of a strategic plan which now focuses on digitalization, credit expansion, operating efficiency, and a “radical” NPE clean-up.  Management believes that in this phase with the support of shareholders, the bond market, and the government, it can reach sunnier climbs. The bank’s "Sunrise Plan" targets a single-digit NPE ratio over the next 12 months and a share capital increase of some €1.0 billion. The group plans to achieve a single-digit NPE ratio in the next 12 months and &lt; 3% in the medium term. The aim is to get NPEs to about €3.6 billion in the next 12 months and to €1 billion in the medium term from €22.5 billion at FY2020. The NPE reduction plan depends on securitization and derecognition of NPEs with an estimated gross book value of up to €19 billion, including the Phoenix and Vega projects. The incremental NPE securitizations, Sunrise 1 and Sunrise 2, totaling €7 billion and €4 billion, respectively, will be carried out using Greece's Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme 2. Senior notes of roughly €6.5 billion from the “HAPS” transactions will be retained by Piraeus Bank, while it may distribute the majority of the mezzanine and junior notes to shareholders of Piraeus Financial Holdings. The group also intends to sell up to €1.5 billion of NPEs outside “HAPS” to further de-risking initiatives. To complement the aforementioned €1 billion non-preemptive fully marketed offering of shares, the group also plans to issue as much as €600 million of Additional Tier 1 bonds. Piraeus Bank SA also agreed to carve out and sell its merchant acquiring business unit to Euronet Worldwide for €300 million, which will also bolster capital further. Looking ahead, Piraeus is shooting for a CAR of &gt; 16% and a ROTE of &gt; 10%.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>A FV of 1% and a PBV of 0.05x are in the global bargain basement. The bank has a bottom quartile PH Score™ (2.2). News flow on a dilutive capital raise have reduced RSI to quite low levels and share price underperformance versus better quality peers is now extreme. If management executes its plan, shares in this rich franchise will be worthwhile at some stage this year with a long-term patient mindset.</p></div>

Piraeus dedicates itself mainly to corporate credit (64% of loans) but also to the consumer segment (36%), backed by CASA funding (71% of deposits) and wholesale markets. The bank commands a 31% and 29% share, respectively, of Loans and Deposits in Greece. Piraeus is especially strong in Northern Greece where it holds a 40% share of all credit.The bank endured a torrid 2020 with Capitalization coming under renewed pressure and modest progress in bringing Asset Quality under better control : true, Asset Quality is much better than at the NPE peak in 2015. FY20/19 results show adverse fundamental momentum and trends with deterioration in Profitability, in NIM, in headline Asset Quality, in Provisioning, and in Capital Adequacy though Efficiency and Liquidity both improved. Management states that it in phase 3 of a strategic plan which now focuses on digitalization, credit expansion, operating efficiency, and a “radical” NPE clean-up.  Management believes that in this phase with the support of shareholders, the bond market, and the government, it can reach sunnier climbs. The bank’s "Sunrise Plan" targets a single-digit NPE ratio over the next 12 months and a share capital increase of some €1.0 billion. The group plans to achieve a single-digit NPE ratio in the next 12 months and &lt; 3% in the medium term. The aim is to get NPEs to about €3.6 billion in the next 12 months and to €1 billion in the medium term from €22.5 billion at FY2020. The NPE reduction plan depends on securitization and derecognition of NPEs with an estimated gross book value of up to €19 billion, including the Phoenix and Vega projects. The incremental NPE securitizations, Sunrise 1 and Sunrise 2, totaling €7 billion and €4 billion, respectively, will be carried out using Greece's Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme 2. Senior notes of roughly €6.5 billion from the “HAPS” transactions will be retained by Piraeus Bank, while it may distribute the majority of the mezzanine and junior notes to shareholders of Piraeus Financial Holdings. The group also intends to sell up to €1.5 billion of NPEs outside “HAPS” to further de-risking initiatives. To complement the aforementioned €1 billion non-preemptive fully marketed offering of shares, the group also plans to issue as much as €600 million of Additional Tier 1 bonds. Piraeus Bank SA also agreed to carve out and sell its merchant acquiring business unit to Euronet Worldwide for €300 million, which will also bolster capital further. Looking ahead, Piraeus is shooting for a CAR of &gt; 16% and a ROTE of &gt; 10%.A FV of 1% and a PBV of 0.05x are in the global bargain basement. The bank has a bottom quartile PH Score™ (2.2). News flow on a dilutive capital raise have reduced RSI to quite low levels and share price underperformance versus better quality peers is now extreme. If management executes its plan, shares in this rich franchise will be worthwhile at some stage this year with a long-term patient mindset.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

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<li>The new CaixaBank has established the composition of its Board of directors, which will be the largest domestic bank in Spain.</li>
<li> The independent expert (BDO) has endorsed the exchange ratio,
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<strong>0.6845 new CaixaBank shares for each Bankia share</strong>.</li>
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<li>The FROB believes that the operation will have a positive effect on the recovery of the aid.</li>
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<p>I recommend keeping an eye on the <strong>spread</strong>.</p>
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<li>It closed on 27 October at<strong> </strong><strong>1.66% (gross)</strong>, not far from the maximum reached on 20 October of 1.73%, and in any case <strong>an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close (est. March 2021).</strong>
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<p><strong>Further catalysts post-merger</strong> are (increased) dividend payouts and the exit in the short to medium term of the Kingdom of Spain from the capital of the merged entity.</p>
<p>M&amp;A consolidation seems as a reasonable way to reduce costs and protect profits. These can be among domestic banks or, much to the liking of the ECB, between banks domiciled in different EU countries that share common markets, and would create European champions (see list of banks that appear in many rumours at the end of the note).</p>


The new CaixaBank has established the composition of its Board of directors, which will be the largest domestic bank in Spain.
 The independent expert (BDO) has endorsed the exchange ratio,


0.6845 new CaixaBank shares for each Bankia share.


The FROB believes that the operation will have a positive effect on the recovery of the aid.

I recommend keeping an eye on the spread.

It closed on 27 October at 1.66% (gross), not far from the maximum reached on 20 October of 1.73%, and in any case an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close (est. March 2021).


Further catalysts post-merger are (increased) dividend payouts and the exit in the short to medium term of the Kingdom of Spain from the capital of the merged entity.
M&amp;A consolidation seems as a reasonable way to reduce costs and protect profits. These can be among domestic banks or, much to the liking of the ECB, between banks domiciled in different EU countries that share common markets, and would create European champions (see list of banks that appear in many rumours at the end of the note).

Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive

Greece

Alpha Bank SA provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers lease financing, insurance, corporate banking, asset management, private banking, investment banking and securities brokerage, venture capital, portfolio management, payment systems, consulting, and real estate management services.

Alpha Bank AE (ALPHA GA)

Alpha Bank - Full steam ahead

Alpha Bank (Alpha) reported €611m in net profit, a 66% jump from FY22, as the bank benefited from an elevated interest rate environment with little...

Edison Investment Research

Alpha Bank - The trusted relationship bank of Greece

Alpha Bank is the third largest Greek bank with a presence in Cyprus, Romania, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. Through its subsidiaries, Alpha...

Edison Investment Research

ALPHA BANK S.A: Corporate & Investment Highlights

ALPHA BANK S.A. Corporate & Investment Highlights Alpha Services and Holdings SA, formerly Alpha Bank SA is a Greece-based banking...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Piraeus: Goodbye 2020, Hello Sunrise

Piraeus struggled in 2020 and news of a capital increase have clobbered shares. We do though see deep value over the long-term - if they execute on...

Paul Hollingworth

Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive

I recommend keeping an eye on the spread. It closed today (27 October) at a gross 1.66%, an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar