Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>
Strong Financial Performance and Improved Asset Quality: Alpha Bank has demonstrated robust profitability, with a normalized profit after tax of €860.9 million in fiscal year 2024 and a strong start to 2025. The bank has significantly improved its asset quality, with the Non-Performing Exposures (NPE) ratio declining to 3.8% by December 2024, down from 6% a year prior. This is supported by a strong capital position, with a fully-loaded Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 16.3% at the end of 2024.</li>
 <li>
Strategic Growth Initiatives and Digital Transformation: The bank is focused on future growth through strategic acquisitions and leveraging M&amp;A synergies. There is a continued emphasis on digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience. The recent acquisition of AstroBank in Cyprus is expected to create the third-largest banking group in the country.</li>
 <li>
Favorable Outlook and Shareholder Returns: Management has upgraded its EPS guidance for 2026 and plans to distribute 50% of ordinary earnings as dividends starting in 2025. The bank is targeting the generation of €3 billion in capital to support increased shareholder distributions. Analysts hold a "Strong Buy"consensus rating on the stock.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Strong Financial Performance and Improved Asset Quality: Alpha Bank has demonstrated robust profitability, with a normalized profit after tax of €860.9 million in fiscal year 2024 and a strong start to 2025. The bank has significantly improved its asset quality, with the Non-Performing Exposures (NPE) ratio declining to 3.8% by December 2024, down from 6% a year prior. This is supported by a strong capital position, with a fully-loaded Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 16.3% at the end of 2024.
  
Strategic Growth Initiatives and Digital Transformation: The bank is focused on future growth through strategic acquisitions and leveraging M&amp;A synergies. There is a continued emphasis on digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience. The recent acquisition of AstroBank in Cyprus is expected to create the third-largest banking group in the country.
  
Favorable Outlook and Shareholder Returns: Management has upgraded its EPS guidance for 2026 and plans to distribute 50% of ordinary earnings as dividends starting in 2025. The bank is targeting the generation of €3 billion in capital to support increased shareholder distributions. Analysts hold a "Strong Buy"consensus rating on the stock.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Alpha Bank AE (ALPHA GA) - Aug 2026

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Piraeus dedicates itself mainly to corporate credit (64% of loans) but also to the consumer segment (36%), backed by CASA funding (71% of deposits) and wholesale markets. The bank commands a 31% and 29% share, respectively, of Loans and Deposits in Greece. Piraeus is especially strong in Northern Greece where it holds a 40% share of all credit.The bank endured a torrid 2020 with Capitalization coming under renewed pressure and modest progress in bringing Asset Quality under better control : true, Asset Quality is much better than at the NPE peak in 2015. FY20/19 results show adverse fundamental momentum and trends with deterioration in Profitability, in NIM, in headline Asset Quality, in Provisioning, and in Capital Adequacy though Efficiency and Liquidity both improved. Management states that it in phase 3 of a strategic plan which now focuses on digitalization, credit expansion, operating efficiency, and a “radical” NPE clean-up.  Management believes that in this phase with the support of shareholders, the bond market, and the government, it can reach sunnier climbs. The bank’s "Sunrise Plan" targets a single-digit NPE ratio over the next 12 months and a share capital increase of some €1.0 billion. The group plans to achieve a single-digit NPE ratio in the next 12 months and &lt; 3% in the medium term. The aim is to get NPEs to about €3.6 billion in the next 12 months and to €1 billion in the medium term from €22.5 billion at FY2020. The NPE reduction plan depends on securitization and derecognition of NPEs with an estimated gross book value of up to €19 billion, including the Phoenix and Vega projects. The incremental NPE securitizations, Sunrise 1 and Sunrise 2, totaling €7 billion and €4 billion, respectively, will be carried out using Greece's Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme 2. Senior notes of roughly €6.5 billion from the “HAPS” transactions will be retained by Piraeus Bank, while it may distribute the majority of the mezzanine and junior notes to shareholders of Piraeus Financial Holdings. The group also intends to sell up to €1.5 billion of NPEs outside “HAPS” to further de-risking initiatives. To complement the aforementioned €1 billion non-preemptive fully marketed offering of shares, the group also plans to issue as much as €600 million of Additional Tier 1 bonds. Piraeus Bank SA also agreed to carve out and sell its merchant acquiring business unit to Euronet Worldwide for €300 million, which will also bolster capital further. Looking ahead, Piraeus is shooting for a CAR of &gt; 16% and a ROTE of &gt; 10%.<div class="content-highlight">A FV of 1% and a PBV of 0.05x are in the global bargain basement. The bank has a bottom quartile PH Score™ (2.2). News flow on a dilutive capital raise have reduced RSI to quite low levels and share price underperformance versus better quality peers is now extreme. If management executes its plan, shares in this rich franchise will be worthwhile at some stage this year with a long-term patient mindset.</div>

Piraeus dedicates itself mainly to corporate credit (64% of loans) but also to the consumer segment (36%), backed by CASA funding (71% of deposits) and wholesale markets. The bank commands a 31% and 29% share, respectively, of Loans and Deposits in Greece. Piraeus is especially strong in Northern Greece where it holds a 40% share of all credit.The bank endured a torrid 2020 with Capitalization coming under renewed pressure and modest progress in bringing Asset Quality under better control : true, Asset Quality is much better than at the NPE peak in 2015. FY20/19 results show adverse fundamental momentum and trends with deterioration in Profitability, in NIM, in headline Asset Quality, in Provisioning, and in Capital Adequacy though Efficiency and Liquidity both improved. Management states that it in phase 3 of a strategic plan which now focuses on digitalization, credit expansion, operating efficiency, and a “radical” NPE clean-up.  Management believes that in this phase with the support of shareholders, the bond market, and the government, it can reach sunnier climbs. The bank’s "Sunrise Plan" targets a single-digit NPE ratio over the next 12 months and a share capital increase of some €1.0 billion. The group plans to achieve a single-digit NPE ratio in the next 12 months and &lt; 3% in the medium term. The aim is to get NPEs to about €3.6 billion in the next 12 months and to €1 billion in the medium term from €22.5 billion at FY2020. The NPE reduction plan depends on securitization and derecognition of NPEs with an estimated gross book value of up to €19 billion, including the Phoenix and Vega projects. The incremental NPE securitizations, Sunrise 1 and Sunrise 2, totaling €7 billion and €4 billion, respectively, will be carried out using Greece's Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme 2. Senior notes of roughly €6.5 billion from the “HAPS” transactions will be retained by Piraeus Bank, while it may distribute the majority of the mezzanine and junior notes to shareholders of Piraeus Financial Holdings. The group also intends to sell up to €1.5 billion of NPEs outside “HAPS” to further de-risking initiatives. To complement the aforementioned €1 billion non-preemptive fully marketed offering of shares, the group also plans to issue as much as €600 million of Additional Tier 1 bonds. Piraeus Bank SA also agreed to carve out and sell its merchant acquiring business unit to Euronet Worldwide for €300 million, which will also bolster capital further. Looking ahead, Piraeus is shooting for a CAR of &gt; 16% and a ROTE of &gt; 10%.A FV of 1% and a PBV of 0.05x are in the global bargain basement. The bank has a bottom quartile PH Score™ (2.2). News flow on a dilutive capital raise have reduced RSI to quite low levels and share price underperformance versus better quality peers is now extreme. If management executes its plan, shares in this rich franchise will be worthwhile at some stage this year with a long-term patient mindset.

Greece

Alpha Bank SA provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers lease financing, insurance, corporate banking, asset management, private banking, investment banking and securities brokerage, venture capital, portfolio management, payment systems, consulting, and real estate management services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alpha Bank AE (ALPHA GA)

Primer: Alpha Bank AE (ALPHA GA) - Aug 2026

Strong Financial Performance and Improved Asset Quality: Alpha Bank has demonstrated robust profitability, with a normalized profit after tax...

αSK Primers

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Piraeus: Goodbye 2020, Hello Sunrise

Piraeus struggled in 2020 and news of a capital increase have clobbered shares. We do though see deep value over the long-term - if they execute on...

Paul Hollingworth

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)