Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>According to a recent report in Bloomberg, The Scientists Who Popularized Carbon Capture Have a Warning About It, scientists who pioneered carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for negative emissions warn that many countries now over-rely on carbon removals to meet climate targets instead of cutting fossil fuel use.</li><li>Their idea was meant as a backup to offset unavoidable past emissions, not as a substitute for emission reductions. </li><li>According to the report, this approach, now central to climate plans, may delay necessary action and heighten climate risks. </li></ul>

According to a recent report in Bloomberg, The Scientists Who Popularized Carbon Capture Have a Warning About It, scientists who pioneered carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for negative emissions warn that many countries now over-rely on carbon removals to meet climate targets instead of cutting fossil fuel use.Their idea was meant as a backup to offset unavoidable past emissions, not as a substitute for emission reductions. According to the report, this approach, now central to climate plans, may delay necessary action and heighten climate risks. 

WTR Renewable Fuels Focus : SAF and the Untapped Potential of Farming, Fuel...

<p>We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory is up and to the right. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Basic Materials: Ethanol, Metals, Steel, Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals Small-Cap</p>

We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory is up and to the right. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Basic Materials: Ethanol, Metals, Steel, Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals Small-Cap

U.S. Equity Strategy: Up and to the Right

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients

United States

Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. The Company offers alcohols for the food, beverage, health, and ingredients markets. Alto Ingredients focuses on transformation of corn into feed, pet food, and renewable fuel.

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Alto Ingredients (ALTO US)

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

WTR Renewable Fuels Focus : SAF and the Untapped Potential of Farming, Fuel...

According to a recent report in Bloomberg, The Scientists Who Popularized Carbon Capture Have a Warning About It, scientists who pioneered carbon...

Water Tower Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Up and to the Right

We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).

Water Tower Research

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