Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Altria Group's third-quarter 2024 earnings call revealed a company in transition, managing both resilience in traditional segments and growth in new areas, weighted against challenges such as regulatory pressures and changing market dynamics.</li><li>The company affirmed financial strength through robust earnings, ongoing share repurchases, and commitment to a progressive dividend, although its future hinges on regulatory landscapes and consumer shifts towards reduced-risk products.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Altria Group's third-quarter 2024 earnings call revealed a company in transition, managing both resilience in traditional segments and growth in new areas, weighted against challenges such as regulatory pressures and changing market dynamics.The company affirmed financial strength through robust earnings, ongoing share repurchases, and commitment to a progressive dividend, although its future hinges on regulatory landscapes and consumer shifts towards reduced-risk products.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Altria Group Inc.: E-Vapor Division Expansion (NJOY) As A Critical Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

<ul><li>Altria Group, Inc. reported its 2024 second quarter and first half results, demonstrating a continuation of efforts to navigate a competitive and regulated environment.</li><li>The focus of the discussion centered around the strong performance of NJOY, one of their e-vapor products, and the ongoing challenges and achievements within traditional tobacco and newer, smoke-free product categories.</li><li>In terms of positive advancements, Altria highlighted significant progress with NJOY, particularly with the expansion of its retail footprint and improved sales and volume figures.</li></ul>

Altria Group, Inc. reported its 2024 second quarter and first half results, demonstrating a continuation of efforts to navigate a competitive and regulated environment.The focus of the discussion centered around the strong performance of NJOY, one of their e-vapor products, and the ongoing challenges and achievements within traditional tobacco and newer, smoke-free product categories.In terms of positive advancements, Altria highlighted significant progress with NJOY, particularly with the expansion of its retail footprint and improved sales and volume figures.

Altria Group: Is The Enhanced Focus on Smoke-Free Products Finally Yielding Results? - Major Drivers

United States

Altria Group, Inc. is a holding company.  The Company, through subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products, including cigars and pipe tobacco.  Altria holds an interest in a brewery company.

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Altria Group (MO US)

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

Altria Group Inc.: E-Vapor Division Expansion (NJOY) As A Critical Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

Altria Group's third-quarter 2024 earnings call revealed a company in transition, managing both resilience in traditional segments and growth in...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Altria Group: Is The Enhanced Focus on Smoke-Free Products Finally Yielding Results? - Major Drivers

Altria Group, Inc. reported its 2024 second quarter and first half results, demonstrating a continuation of efforts to navigate a competitive and...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

Altria Group Inc.: E-Vapor Division Expansion (NJOY) As A Critical Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

Altria Group's third-quarter 2024 earnings call revealed a company in transition, managing both resilience in traditional segments and growth in...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Altria Group: Is The Enhanced Focus on Smoke-Free Products Finally Yielding Results? - Major Drivers

Altria Group, Inc. reported its 2024 second quarter and first half results, demonstrating a continuation of efforts to navigate a competitive and...

Baptista Research

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.