IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)</a> placement and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO, Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) placement and ARM Holdings (ARM US) lock-up expiry.
Event-Driven developments: JSR Corp (4185 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Vinda International (3331 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Mar) - Trial, ARM, JSR, Nippon Express, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)'s tilt for Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU).
Key updates took place on: Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Vinda International (3331 HK), JSR Corp (4185 JP), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) 



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Genex, Alumina, Azure Minerals, Vinda, JSR Corp, Shinko Electric Industries

<ul>
<li>I have received several questions from readers on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. </li>
<li>The questions primarily concerned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. </li>
<li>CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  </li>
</ul>


I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  


Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Australia

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

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Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Mar) - Trial, ARM, JSR, Nippon Express, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (JSR, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda) and ECM (ARM, Trial Holdings, Nippon Express).

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Genex, Alumina, Azure Minerals, Vinda, JSR Corp, Shinko Electric Industries

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Readers have asked about CITIC Resources' voting intentions, the probability of a bump, and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the...

Arun George

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