Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, Operating Profit would have increased by 25% YoY but 2 one-time charges (FTC and headcount) bring OP flat YoY.</li>
<li>2025 Capex revised up from $100bn to 125bn. If Data Center capacity doubles to 2027, that means $205bn Capex in 2027. AWS revenues will double to ~$270bn? Probably yes.</li>
<li>Next 2 years revenue growth and margins expansion are an AWS story. Valuations are average at 31x forward EPS. Buy more.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, Operating Profit would have increased by 25% YoY but 2 one-time charges (FTC and headcount) bring OP flat YoY.
2025 Capex revised up from $100bn to 125bn. If Data Center capacity doubles to 2027, that means $205bn Capex in 2027. AWS revenues will double to ~$270bn? Probably yes.
Next 2 years revenue growth and margins expansion are an AWS story. Valuations are average at 31x forward EPS. Buy more.


AMZN 3Q25: Very Good 3Q as AWS Revenue Accelerates to 20% YoY. AWS Data Center Capacity to Double

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point.</li><li>Recent reports reveal that Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude language model and currently enjoying a $5 billion annualized revenue run rate, is in talks with Alphabet’s Google for a cloud-computing deal potentially worth tens of billions of dollars.</li><li>This shift, if finalized, could grant Anthropic access to Google’s advanced AI chips, a key competitive asset as workloads grow increasingly complex.</li></ul>

Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point.Recent reports reveal that Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude language model and currently enjoying a $5 billion annualized revenue run rate, is in talks with Alphabet’s Google for a cloud-computing deal potentially worth tens of billions of dollars.This shift, if finalized, could grant Anthropic access to Google’s advanced AI chips, a key competitive asset as workloads grow increasingly complex.

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week as OpenAI cut Luna pricing and Chinese models kept cost pressure visible.</li>
<li>Zhipu returned GLM Coding Plan at higher prices. DeepSeek V4 Flash, Kimi K3 and MiniMax H3 carried the model-launch week.</li>
<li>Anthropic logged safety incidents and open-weight policy. Nvidia backed SSI and discussed OpenAI data-center financing.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week as OpenAI cut Luna pricing and Chinese models kept cost pressure visible.
Zhipu returned GLM Coding Plan at higher prices. DeepSeek V4 Flash, Kimi K3 and MiniMax H3 carried the model-launch week.
Anthropic logged safety incidents and open-weight policy. Nvidia backed SSI and discussed OpenAI data-center financing.


This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.</li>
<li>The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.</li>
<li>Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.
The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.
Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.


ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Ecom Express has been absorbed by Delhivery, Meesho has shifted most fulfilment control to Valmo, and Shadowfax has emerged as the listed high-growth challenger.</li>
<li>Indian parcel demand is expanding rapidly, but the addressable pool for independent end-to-end carriers is being compressed by marketplace-owned orchestration.</li>
<li>Fewer 3PLs do not automatically mean pricing power. Investors must underwrite outsourced wallet share, network density, customer diversity and labour-adjusted margins.</li>
</ul>


Ecom Express has been absorbed by Delhivery, Meesho has shifted most fulfilment control to Valmo, and Shadowfax has emerged as the listed high-growth challenger.
Indian parcel demand is expanding rapidly, but the addressable pool for independent end-to-end carriers is being compressed by marketplace-owned orchestration.
Fewer 3PLs do not automatically mean pricing power. Investors must underwrite outsourced wallet share, network density, customer diversity and labour-adjusted margins.


India’s E-Commerce Logistics Consolidation: Valmo Vs Delhivery Vs Shadowfax

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

AMZN 3Q25: Very Good 3Q as AWS Revenue Accelerates to 20% YoY. AWS Data Center Capacity to Double

Amazon's 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, but one-time charges keep Operating Profit flat YoY. Focus on AWS growth and margins for next 2...

Nicolas Baratte

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point. Recent reports reveal that...

Baptista Research

This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

This week in AI: GPT-5.6 Luna price -80%; DeepSeek V4 Flash beta ships; Zhipu GLM returns at higher prices; Kimi K3 opens weights.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

India’s E-Commerce Logistics Consolidation: Valmo Vs Delhivery Vs Shadowfax

Indian parcel delivery market sees consolidation and competition as major players like Delhivery, Meesho, and Shadowfax navigate marketplace-owned...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AMZN 3Q25: Very Good 3Q as AWS Revenue Accelerates to 20% YoY. AWS Data Center Capacity to Double

​Amazon's 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, but one-time charges keep Operating Profit flat YoY. Focus on AWS growth and margins for next 2...

Nicolas Baratte

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point. Recent reports reveal that...

Baptista Research

This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

This week in AI: GPT-5.6 Luna price -80%; DeepSeek V4 Flash beta ships; Zhipu GLM returns at higher prices; Kimi K3 opens weights.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

India’s E-Commerce Logistics Consolidation: Valmo Vs Delhivery Vs Shadowfax

​Indian parcel delivery market sees consolidation and competition as major players like Delhivery, Meesho, and Shadowfax navigate marketplace-owned...

Nimish Maheshwari

Amazon's 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, but one-time charges keep Operating Profit flat YoY. Focus on AWS growth and margins for next 2...

Indian parcel delivery market sees consolidation and competition as major players like Delhivery, Meesho, and Shadowfax navigate marketplace-owned...