Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q26 revenue up 20% YoY. Operating profits up 43% YoY. The revenue backlog is exploding, up 150% YoY. This quarter demonstrates the impact of AI Capex on AWS growth/margins.</li>
<li>AWS Annualized Run rate is at $169bn. CEO suggests that AWS could become a $ 1 trillion business.</li>
<li>Consensus could be a bit low on revenue growth, high-teens looks more likely than low-teens. Margins expansion is ok. Stock trading at 23.4x 2027 EPS, 18x 2028.</li>
</ul>


2Q26 revenue up 20% YoY. Operating profits up 43% YoY. The revenue backlog is exploding, up 150% YoY. This quarter demonstrates the impact of AI Capex on AWS growth/margins.
AWS Annualized Run rate is at $169bn. CEO suggests that AWS could become a $ 1 trillion business.
Consensus could be a bit low on revenue growth, high-teens looks more likely than low-teens. Margins expansion is ok. Stock trading at 23.4x 2027 EPS, 18x 2028.


Amazon 2Q26: After Google and Microsoft, Another Cloud Acceleration: Growth Higher, Margins Higher

<ul>
<li>Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.</li>
<li>Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.</li>
<li>2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.</li>
</ul>


Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.
Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.
2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.


Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits</li>
<li>Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks</li>
</ul>


There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week's data
With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits
Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks


US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. </li>
<li>Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.</li>
<li>Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.</li>
</ul>


FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. 
Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.
Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.


Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Amazon 2Q26: After Google and Microsoft, Another Cloud Acceleration: Growth Higher, Margins Higher

AWS show impressive growth with revenue and profits up significantly year over year. CEO suggests that it could become a $1 trillion business....

Nicolas Baratte

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

Deposits in US banks are now $18.4trillion. Never has it been higher. In past week these are up $122bn to 3 Sept WoW. The magnitude of this ultra...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Amazon 2Q26: After Google and Microsoft, Another Cloud Acceleration: Growth Higher, Margins Higher

​AWS show impressive growth with revenue and profits up significantly year over year. CEO suggests that it could become a $1 trillion business....

Nicolas Baratte

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

​Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

Deposits in US banks are now $18.4trillion. Never has it been higher. In past week these are up $122bn to 3 Sept WoW. The magnitude of this ultra...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: ​FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

AWS show impressive growth with revenue and profits up significantly year over year. CEO suggests that it could become a $1 trillion business....

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...