Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at 1,365/1,355 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend pattern within the range of 1,320-1,410 points.</li><li>However, in the short term, there was an uptrend signal for the first time after a positive breakout signal occurred on Tuesday, due to the index managing to breach the resistance of 1,365 points for the first time in five trading days.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at 1,365/1,355 points.Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend pattern within the range of 1,320-1,410 points.However, in the short term, there was an uptrend signal for the first time after a positive breakout signal occurred on Tuesday, due to the index managing to breach the resistance of 1,365 points for the first time in five trading days.

EU's Manufacturing PMI in April and Earnings Results

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,370 points (10-day/ 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,355/1,350 points.</li><li>The figure is expected to improve slightly at +0.1% QoQ and +0.2% YoY (vs. 4Q23 GDP at +0% QoQ and +0.1% YoY), and the inflation rate in April should continue to slow down, expected at +0.6% MoM and +2.4% YoY (vs. +0.8% MoM and +2.4% YoY in March).</li><li>KTX anticipates the Fed to signal a more tightening stance in its upcoming FOMC meeting.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,370 points (10-day/ 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,355/1,350 points.The figure is expected to improve slightly at +0.1% QoQ and +0.2% YoY (vs. 4Q23 GDP at +0% QoQ and +0.1% YoY), and the inflation rate in April should continue to slow down, expected at +0.6% MoM and +2.4% YoY (vs. +0.8% MoM and +2.4% YoY in March).KTX anticipates the Fed to signal a more tightening stance in its upcoming FOMC meeting.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day and 75-day EMAs), pending clarity on the FOMC meeting (the result will be known tonight).</li><li>KTX anticipates the Fed to reduce the policy interest rate for the first time in 4Q24E and adjust the dot plot to indicate one rate cut (vs. three rate cuts previously).</li><li>KTX views that for China to achieve its 5% growth target this year, the authorities must employ more robust measures than those utilized last year.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day and 75-day EMAs), pending clarity on the FOMC meeting (the result will be known tonight).KTX anticipates the Fed to reduce the policy interest rate for the first time in 4Q24E and adjust the dot plot to indicate one rate cut (vs. three rate cuts previously).KTX views that for China to achieve its 5% growth target this year, the authorities must employ more robust measures than those utilized last year.

Keep a Close Watch on FOMC Meeting and China's Policy Interest Rates

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.</li>
<li>Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.</li>
<li>This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.</li>
</ul>


Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.
Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.
This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.


Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,390/1,397 points (50-day EMA) and the support at 1,379/1,370 points.</li><li>A technical buy signal has emerged following a robust positive close on Friday, breaking through the initial resistance at 1,379 points.</li><li>Moreover, there is a confirming signal suggesting that the index could advance to 1,416 points upon surpassing the previous resistance level of 1,390 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,390/1,397 points (50-day EMA) and the support at 1,379/1,370 points.A technical buy signal has emerged following a robust positive close on Friday, breaking through the initial resistance at 1,379 points.Moreover, there is a confirming signal suggesting that the index could advance to 1,416 points upon surpassing the previous resistance level of 1,390 points.

Keep a Close Watch on Thai Inflation as Well as the Service PMIs in January for the US, EU and China

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

EU's Manufacturing PMI in April and Earnings Results

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

EU's 1Q24 GDP & China's PMIs

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,370 points (10-day/ 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,355/1,350...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on FOMC Meeting and China's Policy Interest Rates

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day...

Krungthai XSpring

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

Keep a Close Watch on Thai Inflation as Well as the Service PMIs in January for the US, EU and China

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,390/1,397 points (50-day EMA) and the support at 1,379/1,370...

Krungthai XSpring

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