External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.</li><li>The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.</li><li>These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front line</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front lineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US economic growth may beat the expectations - the Atlanta Fed projects US 3Q23E GDP growth at 5.4% YoY vs. the projection of Trading Economics of +4.3% QoQ.</li><li>Today's market is likely to be impacted by the earnings results, affecting not only the specific stocks but also related ones within the same sectors.</li><li>The consensus expects the ECB to retain the policy interest rate at 4.5%, marking the first instance of maintaining the rate following a series of consecutive rate hikes over the past year, starting from 0%.</li></ul>

US economic growth may beat the expectations - the Atlanta Fed projects US 3Q23E GDP growth at 5.4% YoY vs. the projection of Trading Economics of +4.3% QoQ.Today's market is likely to be impacted by the earnings results, affecting not only the specific stocks but also related ones within the same sectors.The consensus expects the ECB to retain the policy interest rate at 4.5%, marking the first instance of maintaining the rate following a series of consecutive rate hikes over the past year, starting from 0%.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to increase, with the resistance at 1,540/1,546 points and the support at 1,527/1,520 points.</li><li>The Bloomberg consensus expects Thai GDP to growth slow down QoQ in 3Q23E and 4Q23E to +1.2% QoQ and +0.9% QoQ, respectively, vs. +1.9% QoQ in 1Q23 and +1.4% QoQ in 2Q23E – but it is expected to increase YoY due to the low base effect – on the back of an expected downturn in exports (1H23 at -5.3% YoY, with the BoT target at -0.1% YoY), the impact of MPC’s rate hikes (up by 175 bps in the past 12 months) and political uncertainty.</li><li>The US will report its retail sales in July – the consensus projects growth of +0.4%% (vs. +0.2% MoM in June).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to increase, with the resistance at 1,540/1,546 points and the support at 1,527/1,520 points.The Bloomberg consensus expects Thai GDP to growth slow down QoQ in 3Q23E and 4Q23E to +1.2% QoQ and +0.9% QoQ, respectively, vs. +1.9% QoQ in 1Q23 and +1.4% QoQ in 2Q23E – but it is expected to increase YoY due to the low base effect – on the back of an expected downturn in exports (1H23 at -5.3% YoY, with the BoT target at -0.1% YoY), the impact of MPC’s rate hikes (up by 175 bps in the past 12 months) and political uncertainty.The US will report its retail sales in July – the consensus projects growth of +0.4%% (vs. +0.2% MoM in June).

<ul><li>The current market expectation of 800G transceivers shipment to reach 12mn in 2024 seems too optimistic.</li><li>Optical transceiver manufacturers are in the spotlight this year. As key beneficiaries of Generative AI enthusiasm, Innolight/Eoptolink grew 354.6%/200.2% YTD.</li><li>Admittedly, the surging demand for Nvidia (Not Rated) GPU will bring increasing orders for 800G transceivers in 2023/24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The current market expectation of 800G transceivers shipment to reach 12mn in 2024 seems too optimistic.Optical transceiver manufacturers are in the spotlight this year. As key beneficiaries of Generative AI enthusiasm, Innolight/Eoptolink grew 354.6%/200.2% YTD.Admittedly, the surging demand for Nvidia (Not Rated) GPU will bring increasing orders for 800G transceivers in 2023/24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hardware – Investors Expect Spectacular Results in the AI Infrastructure Arms Race

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,540/1,536 points and the resistance at 1,555/1,560 points.</li><li>Yesterday, the MoU among the eight political parties was broken, and today the new coalition parties are set to be announced.</li><li>Global investors may take profit on risk assets after Fitch reduced the rating of US long-term bonds to AA+ from AAA.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,540/1,536 points and the resistance at 1,555/1,560 points.Yesterday, the MoU among the eight political parties was broken, and today the new coalition parties are set to be announced.Global investors may take profit on risk assets after Fitch reduced the rating of US long-term bonds to AA+ from AAA.

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &...

CMB International

Today's Dominant Ideas

US economic growth may beat the expectations - the Atlanta Fed projects US 3Q23E GDP growth at 5.4% YoY vs. the projection of Trading Economics of...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to increase, with the resistance at 1,540/1,546 points and the support at 1,527/1,520 points. The Bloomberg...

Krungthai XSpring

Hardware – Investors Expect Spectacular Results in the AI Infrastructure Arms Race

Optical transceiver manufacturers are in the spotlight this year. As key beneficiaries of Generative AI enthusiasm, Innolight/Eoptolink grew 354.6%...

CMB International

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,540/1,536 points and the resistance at 1,555/1,560 points. Yesterday, the...

Krungthai XSpring

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