TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Promised operating leverage is pushed out until likely 3Q22, but only higher employee RSUs is a permanent inflationary impact.</li>
<li>Overcapacity is almost certainly transitory, as long as the retail business grows, this will be soaked up in a quarter or two.</li>
<li>AWS backlog is booming again. Amazon's current valuation = 12x forward AWS sales.</li>
</ul>


Promised operating leverage is pushed out until likely 3Q22, but only higher employee RSUs is a permanent inflationary impact.
Overcapacity is almost certainly transitory, as long as the retail business grows, this will be soaked up in a quarter or two.
AWS backlog is booming again. Amazon's current valuation = 12x forward AWS sales.


Amazon 1Q22: (Some) Cost Inflation Is Transitory, The Moat Is Not

<ul>
<li>Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.</li>
<li>Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind... just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other's innovations.</li>
<li>Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.</li>
</ul>


Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.
Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind... just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other's innovations.
Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.


<ul>
<li>Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.</li>
<li>Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. </li>
<li>While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.</li>
</ul>


Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.
Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. 
While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the likely final deal terms and the likelihood of fast entry in the various indices.</li>
</ul>


Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO. 
This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.
In this note, we will talk about the likely final deal terms and the likelihood of fast entry in the various indices.


Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO - India’s Largest IPO Will Not Get Any Passive Support

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. </li>
<li>Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.</li>
<li>Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. </li>
</ul>


Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. 
Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.
Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. 


Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Amazon 1Q22: (Some) Cost Inflation Is Transitory, The Moat Is Not

Current 2023E has AWS @ $104B and Advertising at $48B in revenues. Both are 45%+ EBITDA margin businesses. Today you are paying 16x forward EBITDA...

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 1Q22: TikTok-Ified

Positively addressed IDFA, spending, and monetization concerns. Facebook is massively undervalued. We think its worth at least $290, which is 50%...

Aaron Gabin

Spotify 1Q22 Earnings: Netflix Like?

The more Daniel Ek said that Spotify is not like Netflix, the more we thought...hes right! Netflix has a less competition, more pricing power, and...

Aaron Gabin

Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO - India’s Largest IPO Will Not Get Any Passive Support

Government of India is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India...

Sumeet Singh

Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

The intensity of competition between the big 3 in e-commerce (Amazon, Rakuten, Z Holdings) means that all are investing heavily. Amazon leads but...

Michael Causton

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