Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Recent market developments are encouraging and have improved the overall health of the market, which has also incrementally improved our outlook. At the same time, there is still more to be desired before we can have confidence in the prospect of a broad market rally. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology and Transportation: Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap and Small-Cap, Electronic Equipment Components, and Trucking Large-Cap.</p>

Recent market developments are encouraging and have improved the overall health of the market, which has also incrementally improved our outlook. At the same time, there is still more to be desired before we can have confidence in the prospect of a broad market rally. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology and Transportation: Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap and Small-Cap, Electronic Equipment Components, and Trucking Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets on the Mend, Still Not at Full Health

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In</h2><p>After 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…</p>

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s push for more H200 output collides with TSMC’s already-stretched 4nm capacity, turning AI supply into a zero-sum allocation problem beyond a simple demand upcycle.</li>
<li>TSMC to choose between prioritising Nvidia’s China-linked volumes and preserving flexibility for other customers, while packaging and test emerge just as binding as wafer capacity.</li>
<li>While markets are bidding up foundries on capex optimism, several bottlenecks emerge, including time. This still leaves TSMC structurally advantaged, even as the system grows more fragile.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s push for more H200 output collides with TSMC’s already-stretched 4nm capacity, turning AI supply into a zero-sum allocation problem beyond a simple demand upcycle.
TSMC to choose between prioritising Nvidia’s China-linked volumes and preserving flexibility for other customers, while packaging and test emerge just as binding as wafer capacity.
While markets are bidding up foundries on capex optimism, several bottlenecks emerge, including time. This still leaves TSMC structurally advantaged, even as the system grows more fragile.


Inside TSMC’s Fight to Balance H200 Wafers and CoWoS Packaging

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>MediaTek Joins Forces with NVIDIA on the GB10 Superchip -- Locally-Run AI Models Are Coming to Your Desktop</li>
<li>TSMC’s 2nm Price Hike Spurs Interest in Samsung, But Underscores Its Strength</li>
<li>Latest for Smartphone Demand 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little </li>
</ul>


MediaTek Joins Forces with NVIDIA on the GB10 Superchip -- Locally-Run AI Models Are Coming to Your Desktop
TSMC’s 2nm Price Hike Spurs Interest in Samsung, But Underscores Its Strength
Latest for Smartphone Demand 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek & Nvidia Announce GB10 Partnership; TSMC's Prices Spur Samsung Interest

<ul>
<li>Samsung has scaled back its Texas fab plans from 44 billion to 37 billion, but the summit may bring a top-up with Intel and Amkor partnerships.</li>
<li>Intel is shifting glass substrate patents to an Arm-like royalty model backed by SoftBank’s 2 billion stake and a 10 percent US government holding.</li>
<li>Samsung's partnership would show alignment with US semiconductor policy at a time when subsidies and political backing matter as much as technology.</li>
</ul>


Samsung has scaled back its Texas fab plans from 44 billion to 37 billion, but the summit may bring a top-up with Intel and Amkor partnerships.
Intel is shifting glass substrate patents to an Arm-like royalty model backed by SoftBank’s 2 billion stake and a 10 percent US government holding.
Samsung's partnership would show alignment with US semiconductor policy at a time when subsidies and political backing matter as much as technology.


At the US-Korea Summit, Samsung’s Next Move Could Reshape the US Chipboard

United States

Amkor Technology, Inc. provides semiconductor packaging and test services.  The Company offers deep submicron wafer fabrication, wafer probe testing, integrated circuit packaging assembly and design, final testing, reliability testing, burn-in, and electrical characterization.

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Amkor Technology (AMKR US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets on the Mend, Still Not at Full Health

Recent market developments are encouraging and have improved the overall health of the market, which has also incrementally improved our outlook....

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd...

Andrew Lu

Inside TSMC’s Fight to Balance H200 Wafers and CoWoS Packaging

Nvidia's demand for more H200 output clashes with TSMC's limited 4nm and packaging capacity, creating a zero-sum allocation problem for AI supply.

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek & Nvidia Announce GB10 Partnership; TSMC's Prices Spur Samsung Interest

MediaTek partners with NVIDIA for GB10 Superchip, bringing locally-run AI models to desktops. TSMC's 2nm price hike boosts interest in Samsung....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

At the US-Korea Summit, Samsung’s Next Move Could Reshape the US Chipboard

Samsung could weigh deeper US bets through Intel and Amkor bets as Intel pivots glass substrate patents into a licensing model.

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets on the Mend, Still Not at Full Health

Recent market developments are encouraging and have improved the overall health of the market, which has also incrementally improved our outlook....

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd...

Andrew Lu

Inside TSMC’s Fight to Balance H200 Wafers and CoWoS Packaging

​Nvidia's demand for more H200 output clashes with TSMC's limited 4nm and packaging capacity, creating a zero-sum allocation problem for AI supply.

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek & Nvidia Announce GB10 Partnership; TSMC's Prices Spur Samsung Interest

​MediaTek partners with NVIDIA for GB10 Superchip, bringing locally-run AI models to desktops. TSMC's 2nm price hike boosts interest in Samsung....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

At the US-Korea Summit, Samsung’s Next Move Could Reshape the US Chipboard

Samsung could weigh deeper US bets through Intel and Amkor bets as Intel pivots glass substrate patents into a licensing model.

Mint Finance

Nvidia's demand for more H200 output clashes with TSMC's limited 4nm and packaging capacity, creating a zero-sum allocation problem for AI supply.

MediaTek partners with NVIDIA for GB10 Superchip, bringing locally-run AI models to desktops. TSMC's 2nm price hike boosts interest in Samsung....