Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-possible-us-2-2bn-placement-will-be-a-huge-deal-to-digest-but-it-s-not-all-bad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-us-2-4bn-placement-larger-than-rumored-some-indications-of-finality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see here and here.
In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.


Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebalance is 31 March at the close. There is about US$1.75bn of funding to sell against US$1.85bn of 3 names to buy. </li>
<li>The impact on the Buy Side is middling at 3, 6.4, and 6.9 days of ADV to buy. The three DELETES are larger on average but they are all smallcaps. </li>
<li>One trade - long an ADD vs a Peer - is still worth doing. Indexers buy the stock, it goes into a dark closet, and never comes out.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebalance is 31 March at the close. There is about US$1.75bn of funding to sell against US$1.85bn of 3 names to buy. 
The impact on the Buy Side is middling at 3, 6.4, and 6.9 days of ADV to buy. The three DELETES are larger on average but they are all smallcaps. 
One trade - long an ADD vs a Peer - is still worth doing. Indexers buy the stock, it goes into a dark closet, and never comes out.


<ul>
<li>Today at lunch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> released a New Medium-Term Management Plan Presentation (FY2023 to 2026). <em>“Sail Green, Drive Transformations 2026 - A Passion for Planetary Wellbeing.”</em>
</li>
<li>It has basic investment plans, including growing scale of ONE container shipping alliance, growing auto logistics, spending on fuel conversions, offshore wind, hydrogen/ammonia, and doing some logistics M&amp;A</li>
<li>They also plan a new Shareholder Return Policy. That raises minimum dividend, expected payout ratio, and involves ¥200bn of buybacks the next two fiscal years. Read on.</li>
</ul>


Today at lunch, Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) released a New Medium-Term Management Plan Presentation (FY2023 to 2026). “Sail Green, Drive Transformations 2026 - A Passion for Planetary Wellbeing.”

It has basic investment plans, including growing scale of ONE container shipping alliance, growing auto logistics, spending on fuel conversions, offshore wind, hydrogen/ammonia, and doing some logistics M&amp;A
They also plan a new Shareholder Return Policy. That raises minimum dividend, expected payout ratio, and involves ¥200bn of buybacks the next two fiscal years. Read on.


Nippon Yusen - New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy

<ul>
<li>ANA announced their FY23-25 Mid-Term Corporate Strategy last month. In it, a plan to increase cargo. </li>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> announced ANA would take over NYK sub Nippon Cargo Airlines 1 October 2023 - price and method TBD.</li>
<li>This would add ~45-50% to ANA's cargo volume, and more to its capacity. But it means NYK sells cheap OR it means a chunk of ANA cash/stock. Overhang.</li>
</ul>


ANA announced their FY23-25 Mid-Term Corporate Strategy last month. In it, a plan to increase cargo. 
Today, Ana Holdings (9202 JP) and Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) announced ANA would take over NYK sub Nippon Cargo Airlines 1 October 2023 - price and method TBD.
This would add ~45-50% to ANA's cargo volume, and more to its capacity. But it means NYK sells cheap OR it means a chunk of ANA cash/stock. Overhang.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> plans to sell around US$9bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, trimming its stake by a third.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal in our past note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-placement-deal-structure-past-deals-index-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96666" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank Placement - Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at some of the past deals.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) plans to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third.
We have looked at the deal in our past note, Japan Post Bank Placement - Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback.
In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at some of the past deals.


Japan Post Bank Placement - Misbehaving - Still Has Time to Correct - A Look at past Deals

Japan

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

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Ana Holdings (9202 JP)

Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering. In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note. and...

Sumeet Singh

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebal Tomorrow

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance for March 2023 is tomorrow (Friday 31 March 2023) at the close. There is a US$1.75bn funding sell at the close.

Travis Lundy

Nippon Yusen - New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy

Shipping Co NYK (9101) announced a new MTMP today at lunch. Lots of investment. Some shareholder return. Shares fell. I expect the "Additional...

Travis Lundy

ANA and NYK to Trade NCA, So JAL/ANA GTG

ANA and Nippon Yusen today announced that ANA would buy NYK unit Nippon Cargo Airlines on 1 Oct 2023. Price and method TBD. This likely creates...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank Placement - Misbehaving - Still Has Time to Correct - A Look at past Deals

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) plans to sell US$9bn of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP). The stock price hasn't been behaving particularly well in terms of...

Sumeet Singh

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