Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.</li>
<li>NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/stay-the-course-as-northern-star-nst-au-extends-olive-branch-to-elliott" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268277" rel="noopener">Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott</a>.</li>
<li>NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI SJ)</a>, or a A$27/share implied price.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.


Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)'s Terms

<ul>
<li>In January this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.</li>
<li>The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter's processing capacity earlier this year.</li>
<li>The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.</li>
</ul>


In January this year, Northern Star Resources (NST AU) cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter's processing capacity earlier this year.
The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.


Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>De Beers once had a monopoly in the diamond market, but now the industry is more of an oligopoly with major producers controlling a majority of global supply</li><li>Diamonds are non-fungible assets with a complex pricing dynamic due to various categories and qualities</li><li>Most diamonds are sold via contract, leading to less price volatility but allowing miners to adjust supply based on demand fluctuations</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

De Beers once had a monopoly in the diamond market, but now the industry is more of an oligopoly with major producers controlling a majority of global supplyDiamonds are non-fungible assets with a complex pricing dynamic due to various categories and qualitiesMost diamonds are sold via contract, leading to less price volatility but allowing miners to adjust supply based on demand fluctuationsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Do diamond miners have a future? (Paul Zimnisky)

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent events suggest change is en route at Anglo American plc.</li>
<li>A managerial shakeup is in full swing with "next generation" leadership emphasized.</li>
<li>Kio Kumba is pushing for a railway lease deal with the South African government.Investors must consider past and future impairment charges with caution.</li>
</ul>


Recent events suggest change is en route at Anglo American plc.
A managerial shakeup is in full swing with "next generation" leadership emphasized.
Kio Kumba is pushing for a railway lease deal with the South African government.Investors must consider past and future impairment charges with caution.


South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

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Anglo American (AAUKF US)

Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)'s Terms

I previously advocated the mantra of “stay the course and let the expanded mill re‑rate the stock.” I stand by that. The pushback? Another...

David Blennerhassett

Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott

I'd advocate the mantra of “stay the course and let the expanded mill re‑rate the stock.” The pushback? Another material downgrade.

David Blennerhassett

Do diamond miners have a future? (Paul Zimnisky)

The diamond industry transitioned from a monopoly controlled by De Beers to an oligopoly, with pricing complexities and market adjustments still...

Money of Mine

Anglo American: Noteworthy Developments

Recent events suggest change is en route at Anglo American plc. A managerial shakeup is in full swing with "next generation" leadership...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

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