Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide another update on our favorite junior copper names.</li>
<li>Copper prices have started to tick up (+16% YTD) on squeezed global supply and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd-832e22a7-7a1d-49cf-b992-c6347084cbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)</a>  making an offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a>.</li>
<li>Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +29% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -12% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide another update on our favorite junior copper names.
Copper prices have started to tick up (+16% YTD) on squeezed global supply and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)  making an offer for Anglo American (AAL LN).
Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +29% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -12% YTD.


Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector</li>
<li>Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit</li>
<li>Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.</li>
</ul>


BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector
Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit
Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.


"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.</li>
<li>We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).</li>
<li>If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.</li>
</ul>


In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.
We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).
If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.


Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's shares trade at 0.3% discount to proposal.</li>
<li>BHP is not paying any control premium. Despite its robust portfolio and recent share price appreciation, Anglo trades at a 18% discount compared to the sum of its parts (3018p). </li>
<li>Interloper risk is high. Antitrust risk seems low. As a defence, Anglo may conduct some portfolio simplification to unlock value. I would be long at current prices.</li>
</ul>


On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's shares trade at 0.3% discount to proposal.
BHP is not paying any control premium. Despite its robust portfolio and recent share price appreciation, Anglo trades at a 18% discount compared to the sum of its parts (3018p). 
Interloper risk is high. Antitrust risk seems low. As a defence, Anglo may conduct some portfolio simplification to unlock value. I would be long at current prices.


BHP to Consider Sweetened Proposal for Anglo

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

United Kingdom

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

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Anglo American (AAL LN)

Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

BHP's bid for Anglo American has woken up generalist investors to the looming copper deficit forecast later this decade.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

We explore the recent takeover bid by BHP and potential JSE index effects of a takeover or restructuring that would see Amplats and Kumba unbundled.

DMA

BHP to Consider Sweetened Proposal for Anglo

On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

BHP's bid for Anglo American has woken up generalist investors to the looming copper deficit forecast later this decade.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

​BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

We explore the recent takeover bid by BHP and potential JSE index effects of a takeover or restructuring that would see Amplats and Kumba unbundled.

DMA

BHP to Consider Sweetened Proposal for Anglo

On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...