Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We initiated on the iron ore space recently with a short-term bullish call (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iron-ore-primer-understanding-the-drivers-of-the-market-ways-to-play-the-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136452" rel="noopener">Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector</a>). </li>
<li>Check out our initiation on  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mount-gibson-mgx-au-iron-ore-pure-play-77-of-the-mkt-cap-in-cash-0-5x-ev-ebitda-with-catalysts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136941" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts</a> ).</li>
<li>Iron ore has a more short-term upside as it bounces off the cost curve in its three-year band (95-130 USD/ton), while China has demonstrated an abundant appetite for restocking. </li>
</ul>


We initiated on the iron ore space recently with a short-term bullish call (see: Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector). 
Check out our initiation on  Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts ).
Iron ore has a more short-term upside as it bounces off the cost curve in its three-year band (95-130 USD/ton), while China has demonstrated an abundant appetite for restocking. 


Iron Ore Comes Roaring Back! BHP-Anglo, VALE, FMG: What's Hot In the Space

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Since the introduction of the Shareholder Weighted indices (SWIX) in July 2003, fund managers with South African equity mandates have had an array of benchmarks to choose from.</li><li>The SWIX was introduced at a time when resources made up more than 50% of the Top 40.</li><li>The SWIX methodology addressed this concentration by adjusting the float of dual-listed entities to reflect shares held by South African residents (eg. AGL, BHP).</li></ul>

Since the introduction of the Shareholder Weighted indices (SWIX) in July 2003, fund managers with South African equity mandates have had an array of benchmarks to choose from.The SWIX was introduced at a time when resources made up more than 50% of the Top 40.The SWIX methodology addressed this concentration by adjusting the float of dual-listed entities to reflect shares held by South African residents (eg. AGL, BHP).

JSE Mar 24 Harmonisation - Is Your Benchmark Changing?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>FY25 reset: De Beers now carried at US$2.3bn; Anglo signals a consortium sale with Botswana likely to raise its stake and Angola/Namibia interested—raising odds of a visible 2026 price marker.</li>
<li>Deal path cleaner: ICA cleared and many antitrust approvals in hand. Remaining focus is China and South Korea, plus final B.C. court steps and sequencing—more about timing than structure.</li>
<li>Trade lens: ratio unchanged, but De Beers headlines can re-rate AAL faster than TECK, widening the pair. We stay long TECK(B) / short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with dividend overlays.</li>
</ul>


FY25 reset: De Beers now carried at US$2.3bn; Anglo signals a consortium sale with Botswana likely to raise its stake and Angola/Namibia interested—raising odds of a visible 2026 price marker.
Deal path cleaner: ICA cleared and many antitrust approvals in hand. Remaining focus is China and South Korea, plus final B.C. court steps and sequencing—more about timing than structure.
Trade lens: ratio unchanged, but De Beers headlines can re-rate AAL faster than TECK, widening the pair. We stay long TECK(B) / short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with dividend overlays.


Cut & Clarity — De Beers Valuation Reset

<ul>
<li>Anglo flags De Beers sale to a public-private consortium; Botswana likely lifts its stake, Angola targets 20–30%. A visible price marker supports AAL optics and can widen the pair pre-close.</li>
<li>Net of AAL’s US$4.19 special: +1.74% upside (no TECK dividend) or +1.90% (with C$0.125). If one AAL ordinary pays: +1.26%/+1.42%. Maintain long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with USD overlay.</li>
<li>ICA cleared; Canada and Australia competition done. Remaining: US, China, South Africa, plus B.C. court order. Spread now trades on approval pacing, copper tape, and De Beers headlines into milestones.</li>
</ul>


Anglo flags De Beers sale to a public-private consortium; Botswana likely lifts its stake, Angola targets 20–30%. A visible price marker supports AAL optics and can widen the pair pre-close.
Net of AAL’s US$4.19 special: +1.74% upside (no TECK dividend) or +1.90% (with C$0.125). If one AAL ordinary pays: +1.26%/+1.42%. Maintain long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with USD overlay.
ICA cleared; Canada and Australia competition done. Remaining: US, China, South Africa, plus B.C. court order. Spread now trades on approval pacing, copper tape, and De Beers headlines into milestones.


Polishing the Pair: De Beers Bid Tension and the Anglo–Teck Trade

<ul>
<li>Canada’s ICA approval, with binding Vancouver HQ and C$4.5bn/5yr commitments, removes the policy overhang. From here, the story is antitrust pacing and the B.C. court order, not politics.</li>
<li>Spread: net after AAL’s US$4.19 special and TECK’s C$0.125 dividend is ~2.78%; ~2.16% if one AAL ordinary (~US$0.21) lands pre-close. </li>
<li>Stance unchanged: long TECK (B) / short 1.3301× AAL, hedge GBP/CAD and overlay USD for AAL dividends. Tighteners: antitrust signals, copper tape, De Beers news; wideners: adverse headlines, FX basis.</li>
</ul>


Canada’s ICA approval, with binding Vancouver HQ and C$4.5bn/5yr commitments, removes the policy overhang. From here, the story is antitrust pacing and the B.C. court order, not politics.
Spread: net after AAL’s US$4.19 special and TECK’s C$0.125 dividend is ~2.78%; ~2.16% if one AAL ordinary (~US$0.21) lands pre-close. 
Stance unchanged: long TECK (B) / short 1.3301× AAL, hedge GBP/CAD and overlay USD for AAL dividends. Tighteners: antitrust signals, copper tape, De Beers news; wideners: adverse headlines, FX basis.


Anglo–Teck: Policy Overhang Lifted; Timing Now the Story

United Kingdom

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

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Anglo American (AAL LN)

Iron Ore Comes Roaring Back! BHP-Anglo, VALE, FMG: What's Hot In the Space

We summarize newsflow in the iron ore market and our take on the BHP-Anglo deal. We also summarize the production reports of Vale/FMG and Champion...

Sameer Taneja

JSE Mar 24 Harmonisation - Is Your Benchmark Changing?

Since the introduction of the Shareholder Weighted indices (SWIX) in July 2003, fund managers with South African equity mandates have had an array...

DMA

Cut & Clarity — De Beers Valuation Reset

Anglo’s De Beers reset and likely consortium sale sharpen the near-term tape, while the Anglo–Teck merger is now mostly about timing of the last...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Polishing the Pair: De Beers Bid Tension and the Anglo–Teck Trade

Anglo–Teck: ICA cleared; US/China/SA and B.C. court pending. De Beers sale to a consortium likely, boosting AAL optics. Net of special, pair...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Anglo–Teck: Policy Overhang Lifted; Timing Now the Story

Canada clears Anglo–Teck under ICA; focus shifts from politics to pacing. Remaining steps: antitrust and B.C. court. Commitments include Vancouver...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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