Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Cosco Shipping Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.</li>
<li>It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. </li>
<li>A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.</li>
<li>Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.</li>
</ul>


Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. 
A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.
Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.


China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

Equity Bottom-Up

China Conch Venture Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.</li>
<li>The company's waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.</li>
<li>We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China's new energy industry.</li>
</ul>



China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.
The company's waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.
We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China's new energy industry.


Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

<ul>
<li>Hs outperformed As on average by 0.99% within the liquid AH pair universe over the past two weeks. Beautiful Skew Behaved Badly.</li>
<li>Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly negative over two weeks, both outright and alpha.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs outperformed As on average by 0.99% within the liquid AH pair universe over the past two weeks. Beautiful Skew Behaved Badly.
Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly negative over two weeks, both outright and alpha.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (2wks to 5 Dec 2025):  Hs Outperforming As Slightly But No Beautiful Skew

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.5% as of Dec 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, energy, consumer discretionary and offset by consumer staples, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Jiangsu Expressway, China Vanke, Fibocom Wireless, Fuyao Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.5% as of Dec 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, energy, consumer discretionary and offset by consumer staples, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Jiangsu Expressway, China Vanke, Fibocom Wireless, Fuyao Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 5th): Jiangsu Expressway, China Vanke, Fibocom Wireless, Fuyao Glass

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

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Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a Rmb3.8trn special purpose bond quota suggested government spending will remain important economic driver. More...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

The market has deeply undervalued Conch Venture's waste-to-energy business as reflected by the negative stub value. New business initiatives and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (2wks to 5 Dec 2025): Hs Outperforming As Slightly But No Beautiful Skew

Hs outperforming As but Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly. SOUTHBOUND flows are net positive but it isn't very orderly. Utilities Hs doing well vs As.

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 5th): Jiangsu Expressway, China Vanke, Fibocom Wireless, Fuyao Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Jiangsu Expressway, China Vanke, Fibocom Wireless, Fuyao Glass.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)