Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.</li>
<li>ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)</li>
<li>Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.
ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)
Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> turned around in 1H FY25 as it reported a net profit of Rmb137m, vs. losses of Rmb410m a year ago. Interim DPS increased 92.7% YoY.</li>
<li>Investment gain is the key driver, reaching Rmb171m in the period, compared with losses of Rmb497m previously. Most investment categories contributed positively. </li>
<li>CDNX trades on a 76.9% discount to its SOTP value and a P/B of just 0.22x. Net cash amounted to Rmb3.2bn, or 58.3% more than its market capitalisation. </li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK) turned around in 1H FY25 as it reported a net profit of Rmb137m, vs. losses of Rmb410m a year ago. Interim DPS increased 92.7% YoY.
Investment gain is the key driver, reaching Rmb171m in the period, compared with losses of Rmb497m previously. Most investment categories contributed positively. 
CDNX trades on a 76.9% discount to its SOTP value and a P/B of just 0.22x. Net cash amounted to Rmb3.2bn, or 58.3% more than its market capitalisation. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Investment Gain Remains the Driver

<ul>
<li>Contribution from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> will rise to 5.1%, 7.2%, and 8.9% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s earnings in FY24-26, making it increasingly important.</li>
<li>Amer turned around sharply YoY in 3Q24 with a net profit of US$55.8m. Its gross margin sustained an uptrend, with excellent potential for business growth in Greater China.</li>
<li>Positive guidance on FY25 outlook with a low-double-digit-to-mid-teens level revenue growth, further expansion in operating margin, and continuous cuts in net finance costs.</li>
</ul>


Contribution from Amer Sports (AS US) will rise to 5.1%, 7.2%, and 8.9% of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s earnings in FY24-26, making it increasingly important.
Amer turned around sharply YoY in 3Q24 with a net profit of US$55.8m. Its gross margin sustained an uptrend, with excellent potential for business growth in Greater China.
Positive guidance on FY25 outlook with a low-double-digit-to-mid-teens level revenue growth, further expansion in operating margin, and continuous cuts in net finance costs.


Amer Sports (AS US): An Engine for Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 8th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta Sports, HSBC, Mnso.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 8th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta Sports, HSBC, Mnso.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta Sports, HSBC, Mnso

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Rmb6trn of the new debt swap quota may disappoint the market given the lack of one-time direct stimulus. However, the underlying implications should not be overlooked.</li>
<li>A better balance sheet and savings in interest expenses will free up the resources of local governments, benefiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-environment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Shanghai has immediately rolled out consumption coupon distribution, which is positive for companies in the restaurant, travel, movies, and sports sectors. </li>
</ul>


The Rmb6trn of the new debt swap quota may disappoint the market given the lack of one-time direct stimulus. However, the underlying implications should not be overlooked.
A better balance sheet and savings in interest expenses will free up the resources of local governments, benefiting China Communications Construction (1800 HK) and China Everbright Environment (257 HK). 
Shanghai has immediately rolled out consumption coupon distribution, which is positive for companies in the restaurant, travel, movies, and sports sectors. 


China & HK Strategy: Stock Ideas on China's Debt Swap Plan

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

John Ley

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Investment Gain Remains the Driver

China Dongxiang turned around in 1H FY25 with a net profit of Rmb137m, driven by investment gains. CDNX trades at a significant discount to its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Amer Sports (AS US): An Engine for Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Amer Sports' contribution to Anta's earnings is set to rise significantly in FY24-26, with positive growth outlook in Greater China and Asia...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta Sports, HSBC, Mnso

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 8th and highlight short interest changes in Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Stock Ideas on China's Debt Swap Plan

China's new debt swap quota will benefit local governments and infrastructure companies. Shanghai's consumption coupon distribution is positive for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

​Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

John Ley

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Investment Gain Remains the Driver

​China Dongxiang turned around in 1H FY25 with a net profit of Rmb137m, driven by investment gains. CDNX trades at a significant discount to its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Amer Sports (AS US): An Engine for Anta Sports (2020 HK)

​Amer Sports' contribution to Anta's earnings is set to rise significantly in FY24-26, with positive growth outlook in Greater China and Asia...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta Sports, HSBC, Mnso

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 8th and highlight short interest changes in Xpeng, Citic Sec, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Stock Ideas on China's Debt Swap Plan

China's new debt swap quota will benefit local governments and infrastructure companies. Shanghai's consumption coupon distribution is positive for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

China Dongxiang turned around in 1H FY25 with a net profit of Rmb137m, driven by investment gains. CDNX trades at a significant discount to its...

Amer Sports' contribution to Anta's earnings is set to rise significantly in FY24-26, with positive growth outlook in Greater China and Asia...