External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The 5-1 golden week holidays remain mixed, sales growth is resilient but the underlying are weak (traffic, ASP, discounts and margins), hence we stay conservative on the 2Q24E outlook.</li><li>Overall speaking, with the weak macro environment (e.g. dilution from outbound tourism, property prices and unemployment concerns), achieving such tourism sales growth (at roughly 7.6% YoY) and retail sales growth (at around 6.8% YoY) are already satisfying.</li><li>However, overhangs such as: 1) weak purchasing power per person, 2) drags on margin due to price wars and 3) potentially weak post holidays consumptions are still there. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 5-1 golden week holidays remain mixed, sales growth is resilient but the underlying are weak (traffic, ASP, discounts and margins), hence we stay conservative on the 2Q24E outlook.Overall speaking, with the weak macro environment (e.g. dilution from outbound tourism, property prices and unemployment concerns), achieving such tourism sales growth (at roughly 7.6% YoY) and retail sales growth (at around 6.8% YoY) are already satisfying.However, overhangs such as: 1) weak purchasing power per person, 2) drags on margin due to price wars and 3) potentially weak post holidays consumptions are still there. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Cautiously Optimistic After a Mixed Golden Week

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong equities weakened through most of the week, with poor breadth and earnings-related moves weighing on the broader tone.</li>
<li>Rising single stock option volumes contrasted with weakening equities and declining implied volatility across both the Index and single stock markets.</li>
<li>Single stock option activity continued to increase, although Call participation remained relatively subdued across the market.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong equities weakened through most of the week, with poor breadth and earnings-related moves weighing on the broader tone.
Rising single stock option volumes contrasted with weakening equities and declining implied volatility across both the Index and single stock markets.
Single stock option activity continued to increase, although Call participation remained relatively subdued across the market.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Aug 10–14: Option Activity Builds as Equities Weaken

<ul><li>On one hand, retail sales growth in 5-1 Golden Week was a beat (after a soft Feb-Mar and an inline Apr).</li><li>On the other hand, retail discounts surprisingly widened due to increased competition from the de-stocking by brands like Adidas and Li Ning.</li><li>While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes on the end demand and intensity of competition. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On one hand, retail sales growth in 5-1 Golden Week was a beat (after a soft Feb-Mar and an inline Apr).On the other hand, retail discounts surprisingly widened due to increased competition from the de-stocking by brands like Adidas and Li Ning.While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes on the end demand and intensity of competition. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern. </li>
<li>Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week's bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern. 
Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week's bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.


MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

China

ANTA Sports designs, develops, manufactures, and markets professional sports products, including footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates a multi-brand portfolio that includes ANTA, FILA (in China), DESCENTE, KOLON SPORT, and JACK WOLFSKIN, and is the largest shareholder of Amer Sports. It was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Jinjiang, Fujian, China.

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ANTA Sports (2020 HK)

Consumer Discretionary - Cautiously Optimistic After a Mixed Golden Week

The 5-1 golden week holidays remain mixed, sales growth is resilient but the underlying are weak (traffic, ASP, discounts and margins), hence we...

CMB International

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Aug 10–14: Option Activity Builds as Equities Weaken

Option activity continued to build as equities declined, with Call participation subdued and implied volatility moving lower.

John Ley

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes...

CMB International

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

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