Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. </li>
<li>These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. </li>
<li>We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. 
These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. 
We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

<ul>
<li>The US administration's addition of copper to the<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-expands-us-critical-minerals-list-include-copper-metallurgical-coal-2025-11-06/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> critical minerals list, </a>with a likelihood of a blanket 15% levy, has widened the spread between COMEX and LME once again. </li>
<li>Earlier, Trump had destroyed the spread in July by backtracking on the 50% tariff on copper, limiting it to value-added (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/comex-spread-destroyed-by-trump-long-term-copper-still-great" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:196967" rel="noopener">COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great).</a> </li>
<li>We are bullish on copper. Recent supply shocks will push prices upwards to 12k USD/ton by year-end (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a> )</li>
</ul>


The US administration's addition of copper to the critical minerals list, with a likelihood of a blanket 15% levy, has widened the spread between COMEX and LME once again. 
Earlier, Trump had destroyed the spread in July by backtracking on the 50% tariff on copper, limiting it to value-added (see: COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great). 
We are bullish on copper. Recent supply shocks will push prices upwards to 12k USD/ton by year-end (Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton )


Comex-LME Trade Back In The Spotlight, Spread To Widen Again

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Antofagasta PLC reported its 2025 half-year financial results, showcasing robust financial improvement across several key metrics.</li><li>The company achieved a 29% increase in revenues and a 60% rise in EBITDA compared to the previous year, partly due to higher copper and additional gold and molybdenum production.</li><li>Additionally, the EBITDA margin experienced a significant boost, reaching 58.8%, reflecting a 25% improvement on the prior year.</li></ul>

Antofagasta PLC reported its 2025 half-year financial results, showcasing robust financial improvement across several key metrics.The company achieved a 29% increase in revenues and a 60% rise in EBITDA compared to the previous year, partly due to higher copper and additional gold and molybdenum production.Additionally, the EBITDA margin experienced a significant boost, reaching 58.8%, reflecting a 25% improvement on the prior year.

Antofagasta’s Next Big Leap: Inside the Massive Centinela & Pelambres Upgrades!

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean multinational conglomerate primarily focused on copper mining, with operations concentrated in Chile. The company operates four copper mines, producing copper cathodes and concentrates, along with gold, silver, and molybdenum as by-products. Additionally, it has a transport division providing rail and road cargo services for mining customers in northern Chile. Antofagasta was incorporated in London in 1888 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Antofagasta (ANTO LN)

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

Comex-LME Trade Back In The Spotlight, Spread To Widen Again

The COMEX-LME trade is back on, after the US administration added copper to the critical minerals list, threatening a 15% levy on copper. This...

Sameer Taneja

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta’s Next Big Leap: Inside the Massive Centinela & Pelambres Upgrades!

Antofagasta PLC reported its 2025 half-year financial results, showcasing robust financial improvement across several key metrics. The company...

Baptista Research

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