Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China's stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.</li>
<li>With 58% of the metal's demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. </li>
<li>We believe high-quality equities like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China's stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.
With 58% of the metal's demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. 
We believe high-quality equities like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.


Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

<ul>
<li>With increasing market volatility, base metals continue their rocky weekly performance. Copper was up marginally maintaining a level over 9000 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Copper inventories declined at the exchanges, with ~428k tons combined at Comex, LME, and Shanghai, down almost 9% in the last two weeks.</li>
<li>Read our recent initiation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, contrasting it with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/antofagasta-anto-ln-an-initiation-on-a-mid-sized-copper-miner" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158671" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner</a>. </li>
</ul>


With increasing market volatility, base metals continue their rocky weekly performance. Copper was up marginally maintaining a level over 9000 USD/ton.
Copper inventories declined at the exchanges, with ~428k tons combined at Comex, LME, and Shanghai, down almost 9% in the last two weeks.
Read our recent initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), contrasting it with Southern Copper (SCCO US) titled Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner. 


Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

<ul>
<li>Post our  initiations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/teck-resources-teck-us-the-new-purish-copper-play-in-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:152051" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town</a>, we initiate on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
<li>The company provides an excellent channel check for Chile's mining environment. It accounts for 24% of global mined production in the copper market. </li>
<li>We provide a comparison between all the mining players' ROIC and which are the favorable names to play in the space. </li>
</ul>


Post our  initiations Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own and Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town, we initiate on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 
The company provides an excellent channel check for Chile's mining environment. It accounts for 24% of global mined production in the copper market. 
We provide a comparison between all the mining players' ROIC and which are the favorable names to play in the space. 


Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">Mmg Ltd (1208 HK)</a> today announced a 2:5 Rights Offering to raise US$1.15bn at HK$2.62/share in order to pay down debt from their recent Botswanan copper mine acquisition. </li>
<li>It was a sizeable acquisition, and the near-term EV/EBITDA of the acquisition is 10x or above. The longer-term EV/EBITDA is in the 3s based on expansion later this decade.</li>
<li>The Rights Offering is underwritten, supported by its 67.5% owner. SOUTHBOUND holds 10+%. There are short dynamics, arb dynamics, "don't wanna spend more" dynamics. There's a path here.</li>
</ul>



Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) today announced a 2:5 Rights Offering to raise US$1.15bn at HK$2.62/share in order to pay down debt from their recent Botswanan copper mine acquisition. 
It was a sizeable acquisition, and the near-term EV/EBITDA of the acquisition is 10x or above. The longer-term EV/EBITDA is in the 3s based on expansion later this decade.
The Rights Offering is underwritten, supported by its 67.5% owner. SOUTHBOUND holds 10+%. There are short dynamics, arb dynamics, "don't wanna spend more" dynamics. There's a path here.


MMG (1208 HK) - $1.1bn+ Rights Offering - Expect Regular Rights Trading Dynamics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

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Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)

Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

We highlight our top picks in the copper space and news from the copper world as the investing world starts to get skeptical about China's stimulus...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

Copper has managed to sustain a level of over 9000 USD/ton. We analyze our top picks in the copper equity space as well as fundamental drivers of...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner

We compare and contrast ANTO LN (Antofagasta), a mid-size copper producer, with competitors using an ROCE analysis and the impacts of this metric...

Sameer Taneja

MMG (1208 HK) - $1.1bn+ Rights Offering - Expect Regular Rights Trading Dynamics

Copper miner MMG (1208 HK) bought another copper mine this spring and needs to pay off the bridge loan. Thus a rights offering. It starts cheap....

Travis Lundy

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

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