Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market's promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.</li>
<li>Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.</li>
<li>The dollar's depreciation, Trump's flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.</li>
</ul>


The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market's promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.
Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.
The dollar's depreciation, Trump's flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.


Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

<ul>
<li>Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.</li>
<li>Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.</li>
<li>Coupled with weaker supply (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.
Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 


Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

<ul>
<li>After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).</li>
<li>Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. </li>
<li>With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. </li>
</ul>


After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. 
With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. 


Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. </li>
<li>Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.</li>
<li>A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. 
Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.


Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

<ul>
<li>Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  </li>
<li>China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.</li>
<li>The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.


Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean multinational conglomerate primarily focused on copper mining, with operations concentrated in Chile. The company operates four copper mines, producing copper cathodes and concentrates, along with gold, silver, and molybdenum as by-products. Additionally, it has a transport division providing rail and road cargo services for mining customers in northern Chile. Antofagasta was incorporated in London in 1888 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Antofagasta (ANTO LN)

Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

After the shocks of the Trump Tariffs which threatened to transition the world into a global recession, green shoots are emerging for copper with...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

We highlight key drivers for the copper price that could potentially take it over 10k USD/ton in the medium term: China stimulus, copper spreads,...

Sameer Taneja

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

We compile mine production plans for 12 major copper producers, which account for more than 40% of the refined copper produced. We also analyze the...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post...

Arun George

Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

We summarize all the major drivers of the copper price over the last two weeks. With the China NPC approaching, all eyes will be on the fiscal...

Sameer Taneja

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