Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I <em>still</em> see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sep24-nikkei-225-review-results-a-slightly-baffling-2-in-2-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157890" rel="noopener">Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT</a>. </li>
<li>That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. </li>
<li>And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT. 
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.</li>
<li>The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

<ul>
<li>3D Investment Partners, known to be activist-ish-y, purchased 18% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohokushinsha-film-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15129:1" rel="noopener">Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP)</a> in the 12 months to March 2024. They started a public activism campaign in February.</li>
<li>The company has started down a better governance track, but now 3D has made a takeover proposal to Tohokushinsha, which will consider it under Special Committee.</li>
<li>There are a couple of possible outcomes here which are interesting to consider. There are no other spoilers possible except those friendly to founders and management.</li>
</ul>


3D Investment Partners, known to be activist-ish-y, purchased 18% of Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) in the 12 months to March 2024. They started a public activism campaign in February.
The company has started down a better governance track, but now 3D has made a takeover proposal to Tohokushinsha, which will consider it under Special Committee.
There are a couple of possible outcomes here which are interesting to consider. There are no other spoilers possible except those friendly to founders and management.


Tohokushinsha (2329 JP) - 3D Investment Partners Proposes Take-Private

Japan

Anycolor Inc. operates animation production businesses. The Company produces anime and other products. Anycolor conducts businesses in Japan.

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Anycolor (5032 JP)

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Nikkei 225 Sep24 Rebal data is done and dusted. I see one automatic DELETE, and one ADD. There is a dark horse possibility to replace that ADD but...

Travis Lundy

Tohokushinsha (2329 JP) - 3D Investment Partners Proposes Take-Private

3D Investment Partners bought ~10% of Tohokushinsha Film in Mar-23. Then went to 18+% by Mar-24, going activist. TFC has responded. Now 3D have...

Travis Lundy

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