New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) has reported a very strong FY26 result, above the top end of guidance and market expectations.</li><li>Underlying NPAT grew +23% to NZ$155.3m for the year, on a +16% increase in EBITDA.</li><li>The company will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 12.5c per share (2H25: 9.7c).</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) has reported a very strong FY26 result, above the top end of guidance and market expectations.Underlying NPAT grew +23% to NZ$155.3m for the year, on a +16% increase in EBITDA.The company will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 12.5c per share (2H25: 9.7c).

Port of Tauranga (POT.NZ) - FY26 Result Initial Thoughts

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong</li><li>The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flation</li><li>Expect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive</li></ul>

Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strongThe freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flationExpect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.</li>
<li>Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.</li>
<li>Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.
Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.
Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.


War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For segments we cover -- express, containers, tourism -- 2023 was challenging</li>
<li>In this note we highlight each segment's key trends and themes from 2023</li>
<li>We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024</li>
</ul>


For segments we cover -- express, containers, tourism -- 2023 was challenging
In this note we highlight each segment's key trends and themes from 2023
We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024


Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

<ul><li>We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a robust FY26 result on 28 August 2026.</li><li>Our NPAT forecast of NZ$146m (a ~+16% increase over FY25) lies comfortably within management—s guidance range of NZ$142m—NZ$152m.</li><li>However, the removal of Metroport rail costs; contract renegotiation with key shipping line Maersk; and doubling of the infrastructure levy means we anticipate strong +11% growth in EBITDA on FY25.</li></ul>

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a robust FY26 result on 28 August 2026.Our NPAT forecast of NZ$146m (a ~+16% increase over FY25) lies comfortably within management—s guidance range of NZ$142m—NZ$152m.However, the removal of Metroport rail costs; contract renegotiation with key shipping line Maersk; and doubling of the infrastructure levy means we anticipate strong +11% growth in EBITDA on FY25.

Port of Tauranga FY26 Preview—the Quay Issues

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Port of Tauranga (POT.NZ) - FY26 Result Initial Thoughts

Port of Tauranga (POT) has reported a very strong FY26 result, above the top end of guidance and market expectations. Underlying NPAT grew +23% to...

Forsyth Barr

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

Takeaways: Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation...

Steno Research

War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Conflicts are intensifying in the Red Sea. US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis vows to respond and asserts...

Mint Finance

Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

In this insight we look at the important trends and themes we've covered this year in the express, containers, and tourism sectors. We also...

Tracking Traffic

Port of Tauranga FY26 Preview—the Quay Issues

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a robust FY26 result on 28 August 2026. Our NPAT forecast of NZ$146m (a ~+16% increase over FY25) lies...

Forsyth Barr

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