New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a robust FY26 result on 28 August 2026.</li><li>Our NPAT forecast of NZ$146m (a ~+16% increase over FY25) lies comfortably within management—s guidance range of NZ$142m—NZ$152m.</li><li>However, the removal of Metroport rail costs; contract renegotiation with key shipping line Maersk; and doubling of the infrastructure levy means we anticipate strong +11% growth in EBITDA on FY25.</li></ul>

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a robust FY26 result on 28 August 2026.Our NPAT forecast of NZ$146m (a ~+16% increase over FY25) lies comfortably within management—s guidance range of NZ$142m—NZ$152m.However, the removal of Metroport rail costs; contract renegotiation with key shipping line Maersk; and doubling of the infrastructure levy means we anticipate strong +11% growth in EBITDA on FY25.

Port of Tauranga FY26 Preview—the Quay Issues

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener"><strong>CK Hutchison (1 HK)</strong></a><strong> </strong><a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0813/2026081300222.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 6.1% and 6.4% lift in 1H26 revenue and underlying net profit (excluding one-off items) to HK$241.6bn and HK$12.6bn. Pretty decent numbers.</li>
<li>End-July, CKH offloaded its 49% stake in VodafoneThree for US$5.8bn. No mention of the AS Watson IPO in the results or the anaylsts' call. Reportedly it's been delayed to 2027.</li>
<li>The Panama port cessation incurred a HK$496mn hit to EBITDA. CKH has now announced a  Investment Treaty Arbitration against the Panamanian Republic, an entirely separate claim to the contractual arbitration.</li>
</ul>


Last week, CK Hutchison (1 HK) reported a 6.1% and 6.4% lift in 1H26 revenue and underlying net profit (excluding one-off items) to HK$241.6bn and HK$12.6bn. Pretty decent numbers.
End-July, CKH offloaded its 49% stake in VodafoneThree for US$5.8bn. No mention of the AS Watson IPO in the results or the anaylsts' call. Reportedly it's been delayed to 2027.
The Panama port cessation incurred a HK$496mn hit to EBITDA. CKH has now announced a  Investment Treaty Arbitration against the Panamanian Republic, an entirely separate claim to the contractual arbitration.


CK Hutchison (1 HK) Ratches Up Panama Canal Legal Wrangling

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>'s 1H26 net profit grew 7.4% despite a challenging environment. Its interim dividend payout ratio increased by 5.2pp as net cash surged. </li>
<li>The outlook remains decent as fuel, charter and port handling charges elevate freight rates. So far in 2H26, China-SE Asia and China-Korea freight rates are higher YoY. </li>
<li>The market is underestimating the 2H26 earnings, implying upgrade potential. Its 12.3x PER and 5.4x P/B are undemanding given high ROE and net cash on hand.</li>
</ul>



SITC International (1308 HK)'s 1H26 net profit grew 7.4% despite a challenging environment. Its interim dividend payout ratio increased by 5.2pp as net cash surged. 
The outlook remains decent as fuel, charter and port handling charges elevate freight rates. So far in 2H26, China-SE Asia and China-Korea freight rates are higher YoY. 
The market is underestimating the 2H26 earnings, implying upgrade potential. Its 12.3x PER and 5.4x P/B are undemanding given high ROE and net cash on hand.


SITC International (1308 HK): The Stock to Place Your Bets On

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped</li>
<li>US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels</li>
<li>We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide "tailwinds" for much longer</li>
</ul>


US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped
US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels
We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide "tailwinds" for much longer


US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

<ul>
<li>There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24755:1" rel="noopener">Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)</a> and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.</li>
<li>The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. </li>
<li>Port companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. </li>
</ul>


There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC) and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.
The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK) and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. 
Port companies like Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) and China Merchants Port (144 HK) may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. 


China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Port of Tauranga FY26 Preview—the Quay Issues

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a robust FY26 result on 28 August 2026. Our NPAT forecast of NZ$146m (a ~+16% increase over FY25) lies...

Forsyth Barr

CK Hutchison (1 HK) Ratches Up Panama Canal Legal Wrangling

At a ~52% discount to NAV and a forward P/B of 0.47x, CKH remains inexpensive. Further assets sales/IPOs (ports, telcos, utilities, supermarkets)...

David Blennerhassett

SITC International (1308 HK): The Stock to Place Your Bets On

SITC posted healthy 1H26 earnings, and the 2H26 outlook is decent. Freight rates will stay high, and demand is resilient, with room for earnings...

Osbert Tang, CFA

US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

Falling costs for multiple modes of transportation have provided a strong "tailwind" to US PPI, which has declined steadily over the past 15...

Tracking Traffic

China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Termination of 2M Alliance may mean stiffer competition to be faced by Cosco Holdings and OOIL. Meanwhile, port companies like Cosco Shipping Port...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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