Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.</li>
<li>With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> at 10.8%.</li>
<li>Our top large-cap pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>, and in the small and midcap space, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> and Wesdome Gold. </li>
</ul>


Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.
With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) at 10.8%.
Our top large-cap pick is Barrick Mining (B US), and in the small and midcap space, we like Apex Mining Co (APX PM) and Wesdome Gold. 


Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-container-term-svcs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>We focus on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a>, the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.</li>
</ul>


We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), ICTSI (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
We focus on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

<ul>
<li>
 Four names across ASX, PSE, and SGX initiate our gold mining coverage. The universe will expand as models/management meetings are completed across additional ASEAN and Australian producers.</li>
<li>
 Earnings leverage is non-linear: fixed-cost names gain the most between $4,000 and $5,000/oz. Above $4,500/oz, three modelled companies achieve EBITDA margins above 60%. </li>
<li>
Cheapest Stock: Apex Mining (PSE: APX). 6.2x P/E and 3.8x EV/EBITDA at $5,000/oz/Highest Growth Potential: Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM): Funded pathway to 300,000 oz/pa via the KGP expansion (underway)</li>
</ul>



 Four names across ASX, PSE, and SGX initiate our gold mining coverage. The universe will expand as models/management meetings are completed across additional ASEAN and Australian producers.

 Earnings leverage is non-linear: fixed-cost names gain the most between $4,000 and $5,000/oz. Above $4,500/oz, three modelled companies achieve EBITDA margins above 60%. 

Cheapest Stock: Apex Mining (PSE: APX). 6.2x P/E and 3.8x EV/EBITDA at $5,000/oz/Highest Growth Potential: Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM): Funded pathway to 300,000 oz/pa via the KGP expansion (underway)


Comparative Valuation & Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis of Four Gold Stocks

International Container Terminal Services / Equity Bottom-Up

International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM)

International Container Terminal Services

<ul>
<li>The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a>, the largest container port terminal operator in the Philippines (also with a global presence), trades at 17x PE, 9x EV-EBITDA trailing, with a dividend yield of ~3.2%.</li>
<li>The company operates container terminals efficiently, boasting EBITDA and net margins of 65% and 31%, respectively, and improving ROCE metrics exceeding 20% (averaging 14% over the past decade).</li>
<li>The company demonstrates strong pricing power in a challenging global environment, presenting an opportunity to explore further if additional market corrections occur.</li>
</ul>


The ICTSI (ICT PM), the largest container port terminal operator in the Philippines (also with a global presence), trades at 17x PE, 9x EV-EBITDA trailing, with a dividend yield of ~3.2%.
The company operates container terminals efficiently, boasting EBITDA and net margins of 65% and 31%, respectively, and improving ROCE metrics exceeding 20% (averaging 14% over the past decade).
The company demonstrates strong pricing power in a challenging global environment, presenting an opportunity to explore further if additional market corrections occur.


ICTSI (ICT PM): Terminal Operator, Serial Grower With Pricing Power, 20% ROCE, 30% Net Margins

<ul>
<li>
Revenue and Profit Growth: Consolidated net income rose 94% YoY to PHP2.82bn in 1Q26 on a 41% revenue surge to PHP6.32bn, driven by gold realized price up 66% to USD4,909/oz.</li>
<li>
Grade Decline and Mitigation:  Maco gold grade fell 23% YoY to 2.43 gpt through lean zones; The construction of Tagbaros Drain and Ventilation Tunnel will unlock deeper, higher-grade ore blocks.</li>
<li>At the current price of PHP16.9/share, FY26e P/E is 8.7x, and EV/EBITDA is 6.2x at USD4,500/oz gold, implying undemanding multiples.</li>
</ul>



Revenue and Profit Growth: Consolidated net income rose 94% YoY to PHP2.82bn in 1Q26 on a 41% revenue surge to PHP6.32bn, driven by gold realized price up 66% to USD4,909/oz.

Grade Decline and Mitigation:  Maco gold grade fell 23% YoY to 2.43 gpt through lean zones; The construction of Tagbaros Drain and Ventilation Tunnel will unlock deeper, higher-grade ore blocks.
At the current price of PHP16.9/share, FY26e P/E is 8.7x, and EV/EBITDA is 6.2x at USD4,500/oz gold, implying undemanding multiples.


Apex Mining (APX PM): Solid Q1FY26 On Gold Price, Despite Grade Declines

Philippines

Apex Mining Co. Inc. is a Philippine-owned mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of gold, silver, and other metals. The company operates the Maco Gold Mine in Davao de Oro and holds interests in other mineral properties. Apex Mining was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Pasig City, Philippines.

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Apex Mining (APX PM)

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates...

Sameer Taneja

Comparative Valuation & Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis of Four Gold Stocks

Apex cheapest at 6x P/E; OGP yields 13% with 90% FCF payout; Capricorn doubles to 300koz self-funded. All four print 50%+ EBITDA at $5k gold....

Sameer Taneja

ICTSI (ICT PM): Terminal Operator, Serial Grower With Pricing Power, 20% ROCE, 30% Net Margins

We initiate coverage on the ICTSI PM, the largest container port operator in the Philippines, with a global presence. The company has a stellar...

Sameer Taneja

Apex Mining (APX PM): Solid Q1FY26 On Gold Price, Despite Grade Declines

APX PM: gold price surge drives 94% NI growth despite grade headwinds, 8.7x PE, and 6% dividend yield; Amacan copper project approval and Maco...

Sameer Taneja

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