Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.</li>
<li>That has led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH INDEX</a> and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.
That has led to Alibaba's weight in the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH INDEX and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/cybersecurity-firm-trend-micro-explores-sale-sources-say-2024-08-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. </li>
<li>The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one's imagination to think about a possible sale price. </li>
<li>On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn't reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?</li>
</ul>


A Reuters article overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. 
The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one's imagination to think about a possible sale price. 
On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn't reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?


Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q4 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> ranked fourth in China (mainland) smart phone market, achieving the highest annual growth among the top vendors at 29%.</li>
<li>Chinese government's recently expanded subsidy program now covers smartphones and wearables, with a 15% subsidy for products priced under CNY6,000. This could boost demand growth in 2025.</li>
<li>China's smartphone market rebounded in 2024, driven by affordable premium designs driving upgrade demand in the mass market while innovations like GenAI, foldables, and proprietary systems attracted high-end users.</li>
</ul>


In Q4 2024, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) ranked fourth in China (mainland) smart phone market, achieving the highest annual growth among the top vendors at 29%.
Chinese government's recently expanded subsidy program now covers smartphones and wearables, with a 15% subsidy for products priced under CNY6,000. This could boost demand growth in 2025.
China's smartphone market rebounded in 2024, driven by affordable premium designs driving upgrade demand in the mass market while innovations like GenAI, foldables, and proprietary systems attracted high-end users.


Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  </li>
<li>Factors such as increased demand related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  
Factors such as increased demand related to Apple (AAPL US)  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.
US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.


Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.</li>
<li>DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.</li>
<li>Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. </li>
</ul>


Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. 


The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Reuters has an article out saying that Buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro. Bain, Advent, EQT, KKR all in the mix. The stock went limit up...

Travis Lundy

Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025

As Xiaomi's stock hits new highs, drawing investor attention to our recent insight that highlighted how it would be a prime beneficiary of...

Devi Subhakesan

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Reuters has an article out saying that Buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro. Bain, Advent, EQT, KKR all in the mix. The stock went limit up...

Travis Lundy

Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025

As Xiaomi's stock hits new highs, drawing investor attention to our recent insight that highlighted how it would be a prime beneficiary of...

Devi Subhakesan

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

​1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...