Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings were… acceptable.</li>
<li>
The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.
</li>
<li>
Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.

</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings were… acceptable.

The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.


Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.




Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY</li>
<li>China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion</li>
<li>A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY
China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion
A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output


Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

<ul><li>Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.</li><li>All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.</li><li>The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.</li></ul>

Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,375/1,380 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA).</li><li>Overall, the index is still moving in an upward trend toward testing the resistance of the downchannel range at 1,394/1,404 points.</li><li>Today, there is a chance that the index will weaken and test the support; there would be a new sell signal if it sinks below the key support at 1,350 points.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,375/1,380 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA).Overall, the index is still moving in an upward trend toward testing the resistance of the downchannel range at 1,394/1,404 points.Today, there is a chance that the index will weaken and test the support; there would be a new sell signal if it sinks below the key support at 1,350 points.

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY. China's annual WFE spending has roughly...

William Keating

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of...

Krungthai XSpring