Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY</li>
<li>China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion</li>
<li>A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY
China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion
A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output


Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.</li><li>All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.</li><li>The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.</li></ul>

Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> saw large selldowns by PE funds and pre-IPO investors such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> from last year to this year. Last selldowns in Q2.</li>
<li>There are index events upcoming which will substantially change the shape of the float. There could be another index event, depending on whether the TSE adapts ad hoc.</li>
<li>These events - starting today - have a low flow/ADV count, but that is deceptive. A look at shareholder structure is instructive.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) saw large selldowns by PE funds and pre-IPO investors such as Applied Materials (AMAT US) from last year to this year. Last selldowns in Q2.
There are index events upcoming which will substantially change the shape of the float. There could be another index event, depending on whether the TSE adapts ad hoc.
These events - starting today - have a low flow/ADV count, but that is deceptive. A look at shareholder structure is instructive.


[Japan Flow] Don't Sleep on Kokusai Elec (6525) Index Flows

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

<ul>
<li>2023 WFE revenues amounted to $93 billion, representing a YoY decrease of just ~1%. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline at the start of last year</li>
<li>We forecast 2024 WFE revenues to grow modestly by around 5% YoY</li>
<li>China's WFE spend in 2023 was ~1.5x Taiwan &amp; ~2x Korea</li>
</ul>


2023 WFE revenues amounted to $93 billion, representing a YoY decrease of just ~1%. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline at the start of last year
We forecast 2024 WFE revenues to grow modestly by around 5% YoY
China's WFE spend in 2023 was ~1.5x Taiwan &amp; ~2x Korea


Semiconductor WFE 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

[Japan Flow] Don't Sleep on Kokusai Elec (6525) Index Flows

Kokusai Electric stock has risen on the back of AI demand for SPEs. that means an M _ _ _ inclusion/upgrade today, and likely Nikkei 225 inclusion...

Travis Lundy

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor WFE 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 WFE revenues $93 billion, -1%YoY. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline. We expect 2024 WFE revenues to grow by ~5% YoY. China's WFE spend in...

William Keating

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Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY. China's annual WFE spending has roughly...

William Keating

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

[Japan Flow] Don't Sleep on Kokusai Elec (6525) Index Flows

Kokusai Electric stock has risen on the back of AI demand for SPEs. that means an M _ _ _ inclusion/upgrade today, and likely Nikkei 225 inclusion...

Travis Lundy

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor WFE 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 WFE revenues $93 billion, -1%YoY. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline. We expect 2024 WFE revenues to grow by ~5% YoY. China's WFE spend in...

William Keating