Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 15 November.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are expected to buy over US$1.6bn in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> while they will sell around US$250m in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is the biggest tech name outside the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> now and is a high probability inclusion to the index at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) will replace Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) in the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) after the close of trading on 15 November.
Passive trackers are expected to buy over US$1.6bn in AppLovin (APP US) while they will sell around US$250m in Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US). 

AppLovin (APP US) is the biggest tech name outside the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) now and is a high probability inclusion to the index at the December rebalance.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Lovin' It as AppLovin (APP) Replaces Dollar Tree (DLTR)

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> is a direct addition followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a> are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. </li>
</ul>



Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) is a direct addition followed by AppLovin (APP US) which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) , ARM Holdings (ARM US) and Moderna (MRNA US) are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. 


Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam Foroughi, CFO Matt Stumpf, and Head of Investor Relations David Hsiao’s comprehensive discussions on their business metrics and strategic directions.</li><li>AppLovin's financials for the quarter showed significant growth, with total revenue reaching $1.08 billion, demonstrating a 44% increase year-over-year.</li><li>The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $601 million, translating to an impressive 56% adjusted EBITDA margin, marking an 80% increase compared to the same period last year.</li></ul>

AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam Foroughi, CFO Matt Stumpf, and Head of Investor Relations David Hsiao’s comprehensive discussions on their business metrics and strategic directions.AppLovin's financials for the quarter showed significant growth, with total revenue reaching $1.08 billion, demonstrating a 44% increase year-over-year.The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $601 million, translating to an impressive 56% adjusted EBITDA margin, marking an 80% increase compared to the same period last year.

AppLovin Corporation: How Are They Expanding Into New Verticals? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>AppLovin Corporation, a mobile tech company specializing in developing software for developers and marketers, reported strong financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024.</li><li>The company recorded a total revenue of $1.06 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $549 million, demonstrating a 52% margin.</li><li>AppLovin's CFO, Matt Stumpf, noted that the company's revenue grew by almost 50% compared to the same period last year, and the adjusted EBITDA has doubled.</li></ul>

AppLovin Corporation, a mobile tech company specializing in developing software for developers and marketers, reported strong financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024.The company recorded a total revenue of $1.06 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $549 million, demonstrating a 52% margin.AppLovin's CFO, Matt Stumpf, noted that the company's revenue grew by almost 50% compared to the same period last year, and the adjusted EBITDA has doubled.

AppLovin Corporation: What Is Their Performance-Based Advertising Strategy? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>AppLovin closed the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 on a high note after surpassing the upper end of its forecast and demonstrating a pattern of exceptional performance throughout the year.</li><li>Despite a challenging 2022 characterized by stagnant growth, the company reported a 76% increase in revenue from its software platform in 2023, testament to the potential of its AI advertising engine, AXON. While the performance shows the company's financial strength, uncertainties prevail woven within the statements of forward-looking nature minus respective obligations of updating these unless required by law.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

AppLovin closed the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 on a high note after surpassing the upper end of its forecast and demonstrating a pattern of exceptional performance throughout the year.Despite a challenging 2022 characterized by stagnant growth, the company reported a 76% increase in revenue from its software platform in 2023, testament to the potential of its AI advertising engine, AXON. While the performance shows the company's financial strength, uncertainties prevail woven within the statements of forward-looking nature minus respective obligations of updating these unless required by law.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

AppLovin Corporation: Is The Robust Performance Of APP's Software Platform Expected To Continue To Grow Revenues? - Major Drivers

United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Lovin' It as AppLovin (APP) Replaces Dollar Tree (DLTR)

AppLovin (APP US) will replace Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) in the Nasdaq100 Index after the close on 15 November. Passive trackers need to buy...

Brian Freitas

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin Corporation: How Are They Expanding Into New Verticals? - Major Drivers

AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam...

Baptista Research

AppLovin Corporation: What Is Their Performance-Based Advertising Strategy? - Major Drivers

AppLovin Corporation, a mobile tech company specializing in developing software for developers and marketers, reported strong financial results...

Baptista Research

AppLovin Corporation: Is The Robust Performance Of APP's Software Platform Expected To Continue To Grow Revenues? - Major Drivers

AppLovin closed the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 on a high note after surpassing the upper end of its forecast and demonstrating a pattern...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Lovin' It as AppLovin (APP) Replaces Dollar Tree (DLTR)

AppLovin (APP US) will replace Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) in the Nasdaq100 Index after the close on 15 November. Passive trackers need to buy...

Brian Freitas

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

​MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin Corporation: How Are They Expanding Into New Verticals? - Major Drivers

AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam...

Baptista Research

AppLovin Corporation: What Is Their Performance-Based Advertising Strategy? - Major Drivers

AppLovin Corporation, a mobile tech company specializing in developing software for developers and marketers, reported strong financial results...

Baptista Research

AppLovin Corporation: Is The Robust Performance Of APP's Software Platform Expected To Continue To Grow Revenues? - Major Drivers

AppLovin closed the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 on a high note after surpassing the upper end of its forecast and demonstrating a pattern...

Baptista Research

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...