HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> has filed its S-1 prospectus, with the IPO targeting to be on 12 Jun. There are several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese listed companies that may benefit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-top-numerical-control-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45697:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Top Numerical Control (7688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongyu-communication-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25352:1" rel="noopener">Tongyu Communication (002792 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-sunway-communicatin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13458:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Sunway (300136 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-zaisheng-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25126:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Zaisheng Technology (603601 CH)</a> are more direct.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apt-satellite-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12240:1" rel="noopener">APT Satellite (1045 HK)</a> may gain from the spillover effects of the SpaceX IPO.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) has filed its S-1 prospectus, with the IPO targeting to be on 12 Jun. There are several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese listed companies that may benefit. 

Shanghai Top Numerical Control (7688 HK), Tongyu Communication (002792 CH), Shenzhen Sunway (300136 CH), and Chongqing Zaisheng Technology (603601 CH) are more direct.

AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK) and APT Satellite (1045 HK) may gain from the spillover effects of the SpaceX IPO.


China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration.  In this report we review important technical levels for developed and EM indexes, and highlight a number of attractive opportunities across markets and sectors.

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration.  In this report we review important technical levels for developed and EM indexes, and highlight a number of attractive opportunities across markets and sectors.

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Returns in emerging market wireless telecoms have bottomed as the sector takes a capex holiday after the 4G roll-out. We continue to like low-return markets where we look for returns to rise (e.g. India, Indonesia, China are prime examples). We have also become more bullish where returns are high and stable (e.g. Hong Kong). A number of markets continue to face tough conditions typically due to rising spectrum payments (e.g. Malaysia and Thailand).Higher returns imply higher cash flows and that is good news for both debt reduction and rising dividends. it also may encourage more M&amp;A, an area we think makes sense for in market consolidation and fixed/wireless convergence.In terms of stocks, we favor names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/953" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1016" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>, Telefonica Brasil, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15028" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/873" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1">PCCW (8 HK)</a>. Top shorts include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/946" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:946:1">Maxis (MAXIS MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/947" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> .

Returns in emerging market wireless telecoms have bottomed as the sector takes a capex holiday after the 4G roll-out. We continue to like low-return markets where we look for returns to rise (e.g. India, Indonesia, China are prime examples). We have also become more bullish where returns are high and stable (e.g. Hong Kong). A number of markets continue to face tough conditions typically due to rising spectrum payments (e.g. Malaysia and Thailand).Higher returns imply higher cash flows and that is good news for both debt reduction and rising dividends. it also may encourage more M&amp;A, an area we think makes sense for in market consolidation and fixed/wireless convergence.In terms of stocks, we favor names such as Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) , China Unicom (762 HK), Telefonica Brasil, XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) and PCCW (8 HK). Top shorts include Maxis (MAXIS MK) and AIS (ADVANC TB) .

Emerging Market Telecoms: Returns Have Bottomed. Outlook Improves.

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells technology. Many EM telcos face stagnant growth and declining returns in contrast to opportunities in fibre. Rising middle classes in Asia will pay to have fibre in the home. What has been seen as a niche product will have wider resonance as income levels rise. We believe investors are materially underestimating the potential demand for fixed broadband and for the revenues that result. In some ways this is analogous to concepts of addressable markets for mobile operators in the early days of GSM.As we have seen in Europe, we expect a number of the fibre/cable payers to be acquired by cellular firms look to both remove potential competition and to ensure a strong fibre network to deal with soaring data usage.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells technology. Many EM telcos face stagnant growth and declining returns in contrast to opportunities in fibre. Rising middle classes in Asia will pay to have fibre in the home. What has been seen as a niche product will have wider resonance as income levels rise. We believe investors are materially underestimating the potential demand for fixed broadband and for the revenues that result. In some ways this is analogous to concepts of addressable markets for mobile operators in the early days of GSM.As we have seen in Europe, we expect a number of the fibre/cable payers to be acquired by cellular firms look to both remove potential competition and to ensure a strong fibre network to deal with soaring data usage.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Singapore Telecommunications / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P revises its outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> following a series of divestments. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Singtel are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P revises its outlook for Singtel (ST SP) following a series of divestments. 
Preceding my comments on Singtel are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Singtel Coming Up "Cheap" As Divestments Continue Apace

Hong Kong

APT Satellite Holdings Limited is a satellite operator that provides satellite transponder capacity services, satellite-based broadcasting and telecommunications services, and data center services. The company operates the APSTAR satellite constellation, offering transponder leasing, satellite TV broadcasting, and network services across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Australia. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Tai Po, Hong Kong.

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APT Satellite (1045 HK)

China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation...

Vermilion Research

Emerging Market Telecoms: Returns Have Bottomed. Outlook Improves.

Returns in emerging market wireless telecoms have bottomed as the sector takes a capex holiday after the 4G roll-out. We continue to like...

New Street Research

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells...

New Street Research

StubWorld: Singtel Coming Up "Cheap" As Divestments Continue Apace

Amid improving earnings, the market is assigning S$6.9bn less for the unlisted ops since the beginning of Covid. Plus Singtel is monetising non...

David Blennerhassett

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China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

​SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation...

Vermilion Research

Emerging Market Telecoms: Returns Have Bottomed. Outlook Improves.

Returns in emerging market wireless telecoms have bottomed as the sector takes a capex holiday after the 4G roll-out. We continue to like...

New Street Research

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells...

New Street Research

StubWorld: Singtel Coming Up "Cheap" As Divestments Continue Apace

Amid improving earnings, the market is assigning S$6.9bn less for the unlisted ops since the beginning of Covid. Plus Singtel is monetising non...

David Blennerhassett

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...