Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Ctt-Correios De Portugal Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • dsm-firmenich | 1H26 slightly ahead of consensus; initiates EUR 100m savings program • ING | 2Q26 shows another beat; ups guidance for both FY26 and FY27 • Magnum Ice Cream Co | strong operational execution underpins reaffirmed outlook • Arcadis | rejects takeover proposal from WSP Global • Arcadis | raises FY26 organic growth guidance and presents strategic targets for 2027 to 2029 ahead of its CMD in September • Fagron | reiterates FY26 outlook – continues strong growth and profitability trajectory • AMG Critical Materials | increases its FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlook driven Lithium and Vanadium • E-Commerce & Logistics | EU e-commerce levy faces scrutiny over consumer charges</li></ul>

In this edition: • dsm-firmenich | 1H26 slightly ahead of consensus; initiates EUR 100m savings program • ING | 2Q26 shows another beat; ups guidance for both FY26 and FY27 • Magnum Ice Cream Co | strong operational execution underpins reaffirmed outlook • Arcadis | rejects takeover proposal from WSP Global • Arcadis | raises FY26 organic growth guidance and presents strategic targets for 2027 to 2029 ahead of its CMD in September • Fagron | reiterates FY26 outlook – continues strong growth and profitability trajectory • AMG Critical Materials | increases its FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlook driven Lithium and Vanadium • E-Commerce & Logistics | EU e-commerce levy faces scrutiny over consumer charges

CTT-Correios de Portugal SA - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger</li>
<li>AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 </li>
<li>AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus </li>
</ul>


In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger
AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 
AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus 


iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<p>The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.</p>

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

Netherlands

Arcadis N.V. offers consulting and engineering services worldwide.  The Company performs feasibility studies, develops projects, offers financial and legal consulting services, assists in the permitting process, and offers design and maintenance services.

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Arcadis NV (ARCAD NA)

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Breadth remains weak within the $SPX, but we're seeing breadth improve within the small-cap Russell 2000 $IWM. All this points to a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

CTT-Correios de Portugal SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • dsm-firmenich | 1H26 slightly ahead of consensus; initiates EUR 100m savings program • ING | 2Q26 shows another beat; ups...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26...

The IDEA!

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

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