European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.</li>
<li>As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.</li>
</ul>


On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.
As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.
The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31099:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster International (1665 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. </li>
</ul>



7&amp;I (3382 JP)'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels

Pentamaster International (1665 HK)'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Last night, the S&amp;P announced that with the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> from the S&amp;P Midcap 400, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493:1" rel="noopener">Entegris Inc (ENTG US)</a> would replace it.</li>
<li>Entegris is a company providing Materials Solutions and Purity Solutions to the semiconductor industry (they sell to circuit/memory cos, SPE mfrs, gas/chem cos, wafer growers, etc.</li>
<li>Because of how this company is being added, it is a bit interesting. It will be effective Wednesday 5 March at the close with US$1.2bn to buy.</li>
</ul>


Last night, the S&amp;P announced that with the deletion of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) from the S&amp;P Midcap 400, Entegris Inc (ENTG US) would replace it.
Entegris is a company providing Materials Solutions and Purity Solutions to the semiconductor industry (they sell to circuit/memory cos, SPE mfrs, gas/chem cos, wafer growers, etc.
Because of how this company is being added, it is a bit interesting. It will be effective Wednesday 5 March at the close with US$1.2bn to buy.


Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be ad hoc change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> prior to the announcement of the changes at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> could stop trading next week following the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. The Royal Court of Jersey could sanction the scheme on 5 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesoblast-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:769:1" rel="noopener">Mesoblast (MSB AU)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the index, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU)</a>. The stock that misses out will be added at the regular rebalance. </li>
</ul>


There could be ad hoc change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) prior to the announcement of the changes at the March rebalance.

Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could stop trading next week following the acquisition by Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The Royal Court of Jersey could sanction the scheme on 5 March.

Mesoblast (MSB AU) is a high probability inclusion to the index, followed by DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU). The stock that misses out will be added at the regular rebalance. 


ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Mesoblast (MSB) Could Replace Arcadium Lithium (LTM) Next Week

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Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400

The S&P Index Committee for the US main indices has announced that semiconductor mfg supplier Entegris will replace Arcadium Lithium next Weds at...

Travis Lundy

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Mesoblast (MSB) Could Replace Arcadium Lithium (LTM) Next Week

Arcadium Lithium could stop trading next week. Mesoblast could be added to the ASX200 Index. There is a lot for passive trackers to buy and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

​Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400

The S&P Index Committee for the US main indices has announced that semiconductor mfg supplier Entegris will replace Arcadium Lithium next Weds at...

Travis Lundy

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Mesoblast (MSB) Could Replace Arcadium Lithium (LTM) Next Week

Arcadium Lithium could stop trading next week. Mesoblast could be added to the ASX200 Index. There is a lot for passive trackers to buy and...

Brian Freitas

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.